There are broad categories of models available to the emergency management community to assist in biological incident response and recovery. Infectious disease models are computational representations, frequently illustrated in either graphic and/or geographic (e.g., state, county) layouts, that forecast essential information requirements. These may include estimated incident cases (based on daily or seven-day averages) or new hospitalizations over days or weeks. Atmospheric models are also computational representations, frequently illustrated on a GIS platform, of dispersion flow of a biological agent for either indoor or outdoor venues based on meteorological conditions, particle size, release quantity, and/or other factors.
Models afford several benefits to an emergency manager. Most importantly, they can provide context to a biological incident to help inform decisions. For example, models simulating a wide-area release of weaponized anthrax in an urban area can help emergency managers identify potential areas of contamination and estimated numbers of exposed individuals based on agent release rate, source location, quantity released, weather conditions (e.g., wind, precipitation), and current census data. The same data, illustrated in a GIS platform, can also inform the selection of locations for mass care shelters, medical countermeasure dispensing/administration sites, and entry and egress to contaminated areas. Forecast models for an active outbreak or emerging infectious disease can inform estimates of resource needs or anticipated requests for medical countermeasures and the locations where such demand is or will likely be high.
Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC)
IMAAC’s Technical Operation Hub (DoD Defense Threat Reduction Agency [DTRA]), in collaboration with HHS, has modeling capabilities to support response and recovery efforts during a biological incident using its Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC). HPAC considers weather conditions to calculate the transport of an agent through the outdoor environment and estimate consequences of the release, such as areas contaminated, doses received by people in the affected area, and the likely numbers of injured, ill, and/or dead inhabitants.
Model and Data Inventory (MoDI)
MoDI is a collection of available data and monitoring resources developed for the Emergency Support Function Leadership Group. The MoDI inventory was informed by a comprehensive analysis of data and models used to support emergency management decision-making for floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, biological scenarios, and nuclear detonation scenarios. Online data can be filtered to call out the specific tools and datasets applicable to biological incidents (either bioterrorism or a naturally occurring disease outbreak).