Multi-Year Flood Hazard Identification Plan (MHIP)
MHIP Version 1.5, 6.0 PRODUCTION ANALYSIS
June 2005
This section discusses the actual and projected production of map updates, which are detailed in the previous sections, in the context of FEMA's national Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for Flood Map Modernization. It analyzes progress against the KPIs based on actual and planned map production progress for FY04 and FY05 and forecasted progress for FY05-FY10.
6.1 Flood Map Modernization National KPIs
KPIs 1 and 2 for Flood Map Modernization, as described in section 1, Introduction, emphasize both improving and updating the Nation's flood maps. Meeting these KPIs will help FEMA to meet its overall objective (Key Performance Parameter) to increase the safety for the United States by providing reliable flood risk data in geographic information systems (GIS) format. KPI 1 and KPI 2 are as follows:
1. KPI 1 (percentage of population with digital GIS flood data available online): This KPI is based on the percentage of the national population that has digital flood data available online. Because the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and Flood Map Modernization are organized around community participation, this goal is measured in terms of communities mapped to date. A community's population can be counted when it receives preliminary maps based on FEMA's Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) standards.
2. KPI 2 (percentage of population with adopted maps that meet quality standards): This KPI is based on the percentage of the national population with adopted GIS maps. Because the NFIP and Flood Map Modernization are organized around community participation, this goal is measured based on communities mapped to date. A community's population can be counted only when it has effective DFIRMs. KPI 2 lags behind KPI 1 primarily because of the time it takes to make the maps effective. This KPI is primarily an indicator of product quality and of the success of the FEMA outreach program.
FEMA also uses other KPIs, not directly associated with map production, for measuring Flood Map Modernization performance. Because only KPI 1 and KPI 2 deal directly with the production and adoption of preliminary and effective maps, only these KPIs are discussed in this MHIP.
The specific annual targets for each of these KPIs are again listed in table 6-1. The targets are national and began in FY04, the first year of full funding, although progress to date includes activities funded in FY03. Some regional statistics may exceed these KPIs and others may fall short, but all regional statistics will roll up to the national KPIs.
Table 6-1. Flood Map Modernization National KPIs
Key Performance Indicator (KPI): KPI 1: Population with digital GIS flood data available online
FY04:20%
FY05:50%
FY06:65%
FY07:75%
FY08:85%
FY09:97%
Key Performance Indicator (KPI): KPI 2: Population with adopted flood maps that meet quality standards
FY04:10%
FY05:20%
FY06:35%
FY07:50%
FY08:70%
FY09:90%
Note: KPIs 1 and 2 are cumulative.
6.2 Analysis of Progress Through FY05
Section 4, FY03-FY05 Production Report, summarizes FEMA's progress in terms of map production through April 8, 2005. This section compares that data with FEMA's FY05 KPIs. Table 6-2 lists FEMA's target and actual results for the four KPIs through FY05, based on data available through April 8, 2005.
Table 6-2. KPI Targets and Projections Through FY05 (As of April 8, 2005)
Key Performance Indicator (KPI): KPI 1: Population with digital GIS flood data available online
FY05 Target:50%
Projection:40%
Key Performance Indicator (KPI): KPI 2: Population with adopted flood maps that meet quality standards
FY05 Target:20%
Projection:17%
Note: KPI 1 and KPI 2 are cumulative.
By the end of FY04, FEMA covered 17 percent of the population with digital GIS flood data online, and 8 percent of the population was covered by effective maps by the end of FY04; however, FEMA did not meet KPI 1 or 2. Since September 30, 2004, FEMA has further increased the number of preliminary and effective maps provided to 20 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Based on data available as of April 8, 2005, approximately 40 percent of the population will have digital GIS flood data online, and 17 percent of the population will have effective maps, by the end of FY05.
FEMA is committed to successful implementation of Flood Map Modernization. FEMA has made significant accomplishments in providing updated digital GIS flood data for nearly one quarter of the population of the United States through the second quarter of FY05. This accomplishment will immediately help protect people and property from flood devastation by providing a reliable picture of flood risk to promote sound floodplain management practices and support an actuarially sound flood insurance program with fair and equitable flood insurance rates.
The availability of updated, reliable flood hazard data and maps, and use of adopted maps by participating NFIP communities, is fundamental to the success of Flood Map Modernization. Therefore, FEMA set high targets for performance for Flood Map Modernization KPIs 1 and 2 through FY09. These high expectations reinforce the importance of the program and of achieving the goals. It is important to note that these targets were established prior to the development of a 5-year mapping plan. For a program of this size, scope, and complexity, some variation from the targets is expected. The numbers indicate that the plan may be on the aggressive side, but is achievable over 5 years. Future adjustments to the targets may be necessary as more data become available. FEMA welcomes input on how these KPIs could be refined to fully measure the utility of flood hazard data and maps for all NFIP mitigation efforts.
The following subsections present FEMA's estimates of achievement based on data available as of April 8, 2005. Figures show the projected performance by fiscal year, based on the plan presented in appendix A, as a percentage of the KPI established by FEMA Headquarters.
6.2.1 KPI 1: Population with Digital GIS Flood Data Available Online
Table 6-3 presents anticipated progress, by Region, toward meeting KPI 1 targets through FY05 (calculated cumulatively). The table lists FEMA's projections through the end of FY05 of the number of counties with preliminary maps, the projected percent of the nation's population covered by these maps (calculated by community), and the total of the nation's population covered by the preliminary maps (calculated by community). In addition to the population covered by the countywide maps, the table also includes population with updated GIS flood data at the community level, because some studies initiated prior to FY05 were completed for communities but not the entire county. As of the end of FY04, FEMA provided digital GIS flood data available online for 17 percent of the population. According to data available as of April 8, 2005, FEMA anticipates having digital GIS flood data available online for 40 percent of the population by the end of FY05.
Table 6-3. KPI 1: Projected Population with Digital GIS Flood Data Available Online Through FY05 (As of April 8, 2005)
Region 1
Counties With Preliminary Maps: 10
Population Total with Preliminary Maps: 2,548,734
Percent of Population with Preliminary Maps: 18%
Region 2
Counties With Preliminary Maps: 19
Population Total with Preliminary Maps: 17,460,600
Percent of Population with Preliminary Maps: 56%
Region 3
Counties With Preliminary Maps: 72
Population Total with Preliminary Maps: 14,164,902
Percent of Population with Preliminary Maps: 51%
Region 4
Counties With Preliminary Maps: 151
Population Total with Preliminary Maps: 25,624,053
Percent of Population with Preliminary Maps: 48%
Region 5
Counties With Preliminary Maps: 40
Population Total with Preliminary Maps: 9,622,616
Percent of Population with Preliminary Maps: 19%
Region 6
Counties With Preliminary Maps: 34
Population Total with Preliminary Maps: 9,821,808
Percent of Population with Preliminary Maps: 30%
Region 7
Counties With Preliminary Maps: 79
Population Total with Preliminary Maps: 4,717,749
Percent of Population with Preliminary Maps: 37%
Region 8
Counties With Preliminary Maps: 39
Population Total with Preliminary Maps: 4,758,883
Percent of Population with Preliminary Maps: 51%
Region 9
Counties With Preliminary Maps: 36
Population Total with Preliminary Maps: 23,151,248
Percent of Population with Preliminary Maps: 54%
Region 10
Counties With Preliminary Maps: 9
Population Total with Preliminary Maps: 3,126,378
Percent of Population with Preliminary Maps: 28%
TOTAL
Counties With Preliminary Maps: 489
Population Total with Preliminary Maps: 114,996,971
Percent of Population with Preliminary Maps: 40%
Figure 6-1 also presents progress toward KPI 1 graphically.
Figure 6-1. KPI 1: Projected Percent of Population with Digital GIS Flood Data Available Online
Through FY05 (As of April 8, 2005)
6.2.2 KPI 2: Population with Adopted Maps That Meet Quality Standards
Table 6-4 and figure 6-2 present the Regions' anticipated progress, by Region, toward meeting KPI 2 targets through FY05 (calculated cumulatively). The table lists FEMA's projections through the end of FY05 of the number of effective maps, the projected percent of the nation's population covered by these maps (calculated by community), and the projected total population of the nation covered by the effective maps (calculated by community). In addition to the population covered by the countywide maps, the table also includes population with effective maps at the community level, because maps are adopted by communities, not counties. As of the end of FY04, 8 percent of the population had effective flood data available. According to data as of April 8, 2005, FEMA anticipates having effective maps for 17 percent of the population by the end of FY05.
A note on adopted maps: since maps generally are adopted not by counties, but by smaller jurisdictions, it is not meaningful to compare the number of counties with preliminary maps with the number of counties with adopted maps. It also takes time after a map is preliminary before it is effective, so a lag is expected. Therefore, in addition to measuring communities with adopted maps, FEMA measures the number of communities that participate in the NFIP that have effective maps.
In the first two quarters of FY05, FEMA issued 204 Letters of Final Determination (LFDs). This means that 204 individual participating communities were required to review and possibly update their local floodplain management ordinance to ensure it meets the minimum criteria of the NFIP, as well as adopt the new or revised Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) and Flood Insurance Study (FIS). Out of the 204 communities, FEMA suspended only four of those communities for "failure to adopt" the maps by the FIRM effective date. This means that, for FY04, 98 percent of communities receiving a new or revised study and participating in the NFIP have adopted the maps. Future production rates (i.e., the issuance of LFDs) are expected to increase dramatically as Flood Map Modernization implementation continues.
Table 6-4. KPI 2: Projected Population with Adopted Maps Through FY05 (As of April 8, 2005)
Region 1
Counties With Adopted Maps: 5
Population Total with Adopted Maps: 1,179,678
Percent of Population with Adopted Maps: 8%
Region 2
Counties With Adopted Maps: 4
Population Total with Adopted Maps: 5,545,561
Percent of Population with Adopted Maps: 18%
Region 3
Counties With Adopted Maps: 41
Population Total with Adopted Maps: 7,630,665
Percent of Population with Adopted Maps: 27%
Region 4
Counties With Adopted Maps: 67
Population Total with Adopted Maps: 9,152,235
Percent of Population with Adopted Maps: 17%
Region 5
Counties With Adopted Maps: 7
Population Total with Adopted Maps: 1,803,351
Percent of Population with Adopted Maps: 4%
Region 6
Counties With Adopted Maps: 8
Population Total with Adopted Maps: 4,207,881
Percent of Population with Adopted Maps: 13%
Region 7
Counties With Adopted Maps: 35
Population Total with Adopted Maps: 1,327,438
Percent of Population with Adopted Maps: 10%
Region 8
Counties With Adopted Maps: 23
Population Total with Adopted Maps: 1,873,774
Percent of Population with Adopted Maps: 20%
Region 9
Counties With Adopted Maps: 11
Population Total with Adopted Maps: 12,022,017
Percent of Population with Adopted Maps: 28%
Region 10
Counties With Adopted Maps: 4
Population Total with Adopted Maps: 2,436,090
Percent of Population with Adopted Maps: 22%
TOTAL
Counties With Adopted Maps: 205
Population Total with Adopted Maps:47,178,690
Percent of Population with Adopted Maps: 17%
Figure 6-2 also presents progress toward KPI 1 graphically.
Figure 6-2. KPI 2: Projected Percent of Population with Adopted Maps Through FY05 (As of April 8, 2005)
6.3 Analysis of KPIs for FY06 Through FY10
FEMA currently anticipates meeting the KPIs for future fiscal years. The current sequencing shows that FEMA will not meet the targets for KPIs 1 and 2 for FY05. Scoping has not yet been completed for FY05, dollars have not yet been contracted, and FEMA does not yet have an accurate picture of potential leveraged resources, which may increase the total production in FY05. FEMA is also investigating studies that may be accelerated and is taking action to minimize potential delays to the production and adoption processes.
6.3.1 KPI 1: Population with Digital GIS Flood Data Available Online
Figure 6-3 indicates that according to the plan, GIS flood data will be available for 40 percent of the population by the end of FY05. This number is almost two and a half times the population provided updated GIS flood data by the end of FY04. FEMA anticipates that 100 percent of NFIP communities will have preliminary maps by FY10.
Figure 6-3. Projection/Performance for KPI 1 through FY10 (Data shown in Table 6-5 Below)
6.3.2 KPI 2: Population with Adopted Maps that Meet Quality Standards
Figure 6-4 indicates that according to the plan, effective maps will be available for 17 percent of the population. This number is more than doubled the population with effective maps by the end of FY04. FEMA anticipates that 100 percent of NFIP communities will have effective maps by FY10.
Figure 6-4. Projection/Performance for KPI 2 through FY10 (Data shown in Table 6-5 Below)
6.3.3 Overall Progress Through FY10
Table 6-5 shows the current projections toward meeting the targets for KPI 1 and KPI 2, based on the current sequencing data. Based on these projections, FEMA will not meet the targets for KPIs 1 and 2 for FY05. FEMA expects to meet the targets for KPIs 1 and 2 in FY06-FY09. Currently, it appears that FEMA will meet targets for the KPIs by the end of the program, if not in FY05, but this assumes that nearly 100 percent of the studies will proceed as scheduled as data becomes available.
Table 6-5. Comparison of KPIs and Performance/Projected Performance
KPI 1: Population w/ digital GIS flood data available online
FY04
KPI: 20%
Performance: 17%
FY05
KPI: 50%
Projection: 40%
FY06
KPI: 65%
Projection: 68%
FY07
KPI: 75%
Projection: 82%
FY08
KPI: 85%
Projection: 93%
FY09
KPI: 97%
Projection: 99%
FY10
KPI: 100%
Projection: 100%
KPI 2: Population with adopted maps that meet quality standards
FY04
KPI: 10%
Performance: 8%
FY05
KPI: 20%
Projection: 17%
FY06
KPI: 35%
Projection: 40%
FY07
KPI: 50%
Projection: 68%
FY08
KPI: 70%
Projection: 81%
FY09
KPI: 90%
Projection: 94%
FY10
KPI: 100%
Projection: 100%
Note: KPI 1 and KPI 2 are cumulative.