Untitled-2.png Back Home Again in Indiana Data Updating and Validation Study with Hurricane Ike Afternoon Session –Hurricane Model Aiju “Annie” Ding, PhD, GISP Director of GIS CivilTech Engineering, Inc. August 23-25 CEI-logo-white-small g1 Content .Background .Update Default Data with Local Data .Hurricane Ike Validation .Hurricane Scenario Handbook .Lessons Learned CEI-logo-white-small City of Houston Wind Data Website cohhidefromthewind1 CEI-logo-white-small HAZUS-MH runs begin at 10 am on Sept. 10, 2008 Iketrack Source: Gordon Wells, Center for Space Research, The University of Texas at Austin Advisory Release Time (CDT) #1 9/10/08, 12:00 pm #2 9/10/08, 5:00 pm #3 9/11/08, 9:00 am #4 9/11/08, 11:00 am #5 9/11/08, 5:00 pm #6 9/11/08, 10:00 pm #7 9/12/08, 7:00 am #8 9/12/08, 10:00 am #9 9/12/08, 5:00 pm #10 9/12/08, 10:00 pm Ike Economic Damage Advisories were released to •Elected Officials, •Public Officials, and •Emergency management Agencies Hurricane Ike Economic Advisories exhibit1 exhibit3 exhibit1 exhibit3 Peakgust550 Stormlocation490A Hurrevac Advisory #38 IKE 9/10/2008 10:00AM CDT Hurrevac Advisory #46IKE 9/12/2008 10:00AM CDT Hurrevac Advisory #49A IKE 9/14/2008 4:00PM CDT Direct Economic Losses of approximately $0.6Min wind-induced building and content damage for 5 counties Direct Economic Losses of approximately $15 billionin wind-induced building and content damage for 5 counties Direct Economic Losses of approximately $9 billionin wind-induced building and content damage for 5 counties Update Base Data .Hazard data–elevation, surface roughness & tree .Demographics–population, employment and housing .Building Stock–residential, commercial and industrial, etc. .Essential Facilities–hospitals, schools, police stations and fire stations, emergency response centers .Transportation–highways, bridges, railways, tunnels, airports, ports and ferry facilities .High potential loss facilities–dams, levees, hazardous material sites and military installations CEI-logo-white-small Update Base Data -Elevation .HAZUS Default USGS 1 Arc (30-m) DEM .Updated Integrated 15-m DEM derived from LiDAR CEI-logo-white-small demsources dem Update Base Data –Surface Roughness .HAZUS Default 2001 National Land Cover Data (NLCD) .Updated 2008 H-GAC Land Cover CEI-logo-white-small HGAC_LC2008 Table 1 Roughness Lengths for NLCD Land Cover Classes for Texas H-GAC 2008 Land Cover Class MRLC NLCD 1992 Land Cover Class Average Roughness Length Developed, Higher Intensity High Intensity Residential 0.55 Developed, Lower Intensity Low Intensity Residential 0.35 Developed, Open Space Open Land 0.03 Cultivated Herbaceous Planted / Cultivated 0.043 Grassland/Shrub Shrubland, Urban/Recreational Grasses 0.085 Forest Forest Upland 0.553 Woody Wetland Woody Wetlands 0.50 Herbaceous Wetland Emergent Herbaceous Wetlands 0.10 Bare Bare Rock/Sand/Clay 0.10 Open Water Open Water 0.010 CEI-logo-white-small roughness_updated Update Base Data –Tree Coverage .HAZUS Default 2001 National Land Cover Data (NLCD) .Updated Data Sources •Landuse/Land Cover .2001 NLCD (30-meter) .2005 NASA Grant Land Use/Land Cover ( 4-meter) .2008 H-GAC (30-meter) .2008 Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) data •Elevation Data .2008 Harris County LiDAR •Ike Timber Damage Assessment CEI-logo-white-small x1 2008 LiDAR Data Identify Urban Tree Assign Tree Height Tree Height = Digital Surface Model –Digital Elevation Neglect Trees < 30 ft 2005 NASA Grant Land Use/Land Cover Tall Vegetation Filter Urban Tree Coverage Combined Tree Coverage Aggregated to Census Tract MRLC 2001 National Land Cover Data Predominant Tree Type For Each Tract Adjusted Tree Coverage with Hurricane Ike Damage Collection Factor, Dominant Tree Type, Stems Per Acre of Land, and Tree Height Distribution for Each Tract Debris Collection Factor from 2008 Aerial FIA 2008 Forest Land Tree Density H-GAC Land Cover 2008 Forest Land Tree Coverage Forest Area Urban Area Ike Adjustment Procedures Used to Develop Harris County Tree Database qc555600 qc233000 Residential Forest Area RiceZoom2 Table 2 Harris County Tree Coverage Comparisons. Height Range (ft) HAZUS-MH Default FIA 2008 Updated Stems % Stems % Stems % 30 -40 10,034,916 33% 7,879,679 38% 6,600,912 39% 40 -60 12,163,534 40% 7,323,100 35% 6,059,255 35% > 60 8,210,385 27% 5,637,434 27% 4,445,115 26% Total 30,408,835 100% 20,839,213 100% 17,105,282 100% •Default tree data based on 2001 NLCD •The FIA field survey includes only contiguous tree covered areas not less than 12 acres in area. Average tree density and tree height distribution obtained from FIA database are applied to all tree covered areas in a county, including smaller patches and strips of tree covered areas in residential subdivisions as identified by the MRLC land cover database. HAZUS-MH default tree data greatly overestimated the number of trees for Harris County. CEI-logo-white-small Update Base Data –Demographic Data .HAZUS Default 2000 Census Data .Updated Forecasted 2010 population and housing (By Professor Steven G. Craig at the University of Houston, and a Research Associate of its Center for Public Policy.) CEI-logo-white-small Table 3 Population and housing data comparison Category Default Updated Increase Total Households 1,205,501 1,441,060 20% Total Population 3,399,599 4,069,827 20% White 1,431,621 1,576,629 10% Black 619,643 707,104 14% Hispanic 1,119,647 1,507,769 35% Other 185,861 278,325 50% CEI-logo-white-small Update Base Data –GBS .HAZUS Default Residential:2000 Census Data Non-residential: Dun & Bradstreet (D&B 2006) .Updated 2009 Certified HCAD database CEI-logo-white-small Table 4 Comparisons between Default and Update GBS Database Default HAZUS-MH GBS Database Residential Commercial Industrial Government Total Building Count 922,040 63,546 17,540 1,050 1,013,219 Exposure (Million $) 164,854 40,280 12,158 831 224,182 Square Foot (x1,000) 1,911,885 446,477 161,357 9,202 2,590,373 Updated HAZUS-MH GBS Database Residential Commercial Industrial Government Total Building Count 1,054,763 70,580 1,509 609 1,132,595 Exposure (Million $) 217,204 79,130 1,060 1,003 320,729 Square Foot (x1,000) 2,888,096 1,129,462 27,221 8,400 4,224,774 CEI-logo-white-small Update Base Data –Essential Facilities .Fire Stations, Police Stations & Emergency Response Centers Default: Geocoded 2001 Info USA Updated: Integrated City of Houston & Harris County data .Hospital Default: 2000 American Hospital Association (AHA) data Updated: 2008 AHA data .School Default: 2000 National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Updated: 2007-2008 NCES data CEI-logo-white-small Update Base Data –Transportation .Highway Segments Default: 2005 Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Updated: Integration of latest available information obtained from various local government agencies .Railway Default: National Rail Network database Updated: Texas Railroad Commission & Port of Houston Authority Data .Highway Bridges Default: 2001 National Bridge Inventory (NBI) Updated: 2008 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration National Bridge Inventory .Bus, Port, Airport Default: 2001 Info USA Inc., USACE port dataset, Federal Aviation Administration Updated: Houston Metro, Port of Houston Authority, Houston Airport System CEI-logo-white-small Update Base Data –High Potential Loss .Dam/Levee Default: 1999 National Inventory of Dams database (USACE) Updated: City of Houston Office of Emergency Management Dam data information. Each dam/levee location was verified with 2008 1-foot resolution aerial photos and LiDAR elevation data. .Military Facility Default: Not available Updated: Ellington Field .Hazard Materials Default: 1999 EPA Toxic Release Inventory database Updated: 2008 EPA Toxic Release Inventory database, and COH OEM hazardous materials tier II facilities. CEI-logo-white-small Update Building Mapping Schemes Within HAZUS-MH, occupancy mapping tables indicate, by occupancy, the percent distribution of various building types. Occupancy mapping relationships within HAZUS-MH exist at two levels: 1)General Mapping Scheme: the distribution by occupancy across the five basic building types (Wood, Concrete, Steel, Masonry, and Manufactured Housing), and 2)Specific Occupancy Mapping Schemes: the distribution across the detailed building types for a given occupancy and material type. These detailed mapping scheme distributions drive which vulnerability functions will be used to estimate damage and loss for each occupancy class. CEI-logo-white-small Update Building Mapping Schemes Harris County specific GBT and SBTs were developed based on HCAD building data. The default GBT and SBTs were updated with information that is more accurate for Harris County. CEI-logo-white-small HAZUS-MH Validation with Ike Ground Truth Data .HAZUS-MH wind field validation .HAZUS-MH debris estimates validation .HAZUS-MH building damage validation CEI-logo-white-small Wind Model Validation windstations WeatherFlow Sensor & Florida Coastal Monitor Program Tower Location CEI-logo-white-small Wind Model Validation y = 0.9708xR2 = 0.93492040608010012014020406080100120140Modeled Wind (mph) Observed Wind (mph)WeatherFlow DataCFMP Tower DataLinear Debris Estimates Validation Source of Estimation City of Houston Harris County** HAZUS-MH (Level 1) 4.5 4.8 HAZUS-MH (Level 2) 6.4 5.3 Debris Picked Up 4.3 1.4 or 4? *City of Houston project total on 10/18/08: 4.87 million cubic yard; **As of 10/5/08. Harris County refer to areas within county boundary but outside City of Houston limits CEI-logo-white-small Building Damage Estimates Validation Category Ike Damage Survey HAZUS-MH Level 2 HAZUS-MH Level 1 Residential Building Damage (billion dollars) 8.2 7.5 4.5 Uninhabitable Residential Units 6,700 6,647 4,863 CEI-logo-white-small Building Damage Estimates Validation Number of Building Damage by Census Tracty = 0.8786x + 134.84R2 = 0.6702004006008001,0001,2001,40002004006008001,0001,2001,400Ike Damage SurveyHAZUS-MH Estimation CEI-logo-white-small Hurricane Scenario Handbook .Hurricane wind risk assessment projections .Wind distribution maps .Green debris .Building damage .Displaced population .Sheltering requirements .Direct economic losses .Storm surge areas –SLOSH Model CEI-logo-white-small Hurricane Scenario Handbook Untitled1 Category: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5Direction: NW, NStrike Location: E, C, WSpeed (mph): 5, 10, 15Tide: High, MeanTotal of 90 Scenarios CEI-logo-white-small Hurricane Scenario Handbook Hurricane Scenario #76Category 5 Strike East of Harris CountyMoving NorthForwarding Speed 5 MPH CEI-logo-white-small C5N05E C5N05E2 Expected Number of Building Damage Damage State Residential Commercial Other Total Damaged % of Total Buildings* Minor 159,155 8,784 1,208 169,147 14.9% Moderate 102,867 9,537 1,243 113,647 10.0% Severe 105,450 16,040 1,909 123,399 10.9% Destruction 195,964 5,352 295 201,611 17.8% Total Damaged 563,436 39,713 4,655 607,804 53.6% * Percent of all buildings including damaged and no damage Debris Estimates Estimated Tree Debris (cubic yards) 6.7 million Other Debris (cubic yards) 67.2 million Total Debris (cubic yards) 73.9 million CEI-logo-white-small Shelter Requirements Displaced households (# Households) 371,589 Short Term Shelter (# People) 86,154 Property Damage $102.40 billion Residential Property $75.8 billion Commercial Property $17.88 billion Industrial property $0.52 billion Other Property $8.2 billion Business Interruption $22.31 billion Total Direct Economic Loss $124.71 billion Direct Economic Loss CEI-logo-white-small C5N05H Lessons Learned CEI-logo-white-small .CDMS2.5 is very useful. .HAZUS-MH Wind Model run time error after run many scenarios .Need more systematic data collection during and after an event .Building Type modeled as Mapping Schemes .User defined facility not stored in State data .Unable to import large number of user defined facility Thank You & Questions Contact Info: Annie Ding Director of GIS CivilTech Engineering, Inc. ading@civiltecheng.com CEI-logo-white-small