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National Situation Update: Monday, March 15, 2010

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
An upper level low over the Four Corners area will produce additional snow over the San Juan and Sangre De Cristo ranges. The system will then gradually slide eastward into Texas and the Southern Plains.
The latest storm moving in off the Pacific will produce rain along the coasts of Washington and Oregon. Tuesday, the system will produce rain and mountain snow across the Cascades and northernmost Sierra. Snow levels will range from over 5,000 feet in the Washington Cascades to 7,000 feet in northern California.

Midwest:
Under a ridge of high pressure the region will be generally dry.
The system moving out of the West will produce a few showers and snow showers in southwest Kansas. Light rain and drizzle are forecast in the Dakotas and western Minnesota from an upper level low. Tuesday, this system will move to the southeast producing showers in the Upper Midwest, Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley.

South:
The low off the Mid-Atlantic will bring widespread cloudiness to the region but precipitation will be limited to the Appalachian Mountains. The upper level low moving out of New Mexico will produce up to an inch of rain in Texas along with few thunderstorms. The Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles may see a few snow showers Tuesday, the precipitation will move southeastward to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Northeast:
The low offshore the Mid-Atlantic will produce one more day of precipitation across the region. Up to one inch of additional rainfall is forecast for southern Maine, southeast New Hampshire, eastern Massachusetts, eastern Long Island and coastal New Jersey. Ongoing river flooding is expected from New Jersey to New England. Onshore winds with gusts to 40 mph are expected along coastal areas of New England with resulting coastal flooding and rough surf. Wet snow will fall over the higher elevations from Virginia to Maine. Precipitation will end on Tuesday as the low moves out into the Atlantic. (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Hydro Meteorological Prediction Center, and various media sources) 

East Coast Flooding

There are numerous Watches, Warnings and Advisories in effect (See http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ for the latest information).

Federal:
FEMA’s Response Watch Center and Regions I, II, III and IV are monitoring.
Region II LNO deployed to the West Virginia EOC.
Region III will start joint State/Federal PDAs today in West Virginia. The PDAs are a result of the flooding event this past weekend and will examine Individual Assistance and Public Assistance. 

Midwest Flooding

Federal
On March 14, 2010 the President declared an Emergency Declaration for the State of North Dakota (FEMA-3309-EM) as a result of flooding that occurred February 26, 2010, and continuing.  The declaration provides Public Assistance for 18 counties and the Spirit Lake Reservation. Specifically, FEMA is authorized to provide emergency protective measures (Category B), including direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program at 75 percent Federal funding.
FEMA logistics is working to establish an Incident Support Base (ISB) in Grand Forks, ND.
USACE contracts should be in place to begin levee construction in the City of Fargo tomorrow. Work will begin in Lisbon on Tuesday, March 16, 2010.

North Dakota
ND SEOC is at Level III (Monitoring Activation); Mon-Fri 7:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m.
The State has activated the National Guard to assist in levee construction and traffic control. 

Flooding Outlook:
Missouri and James River Basins
In general, at least some minor to moderate flooding remains a near certainty in all basins and the risk of moderate to major flooding is substantial. Even though the probability of major flooding has slightly lessened again in the model for Apple Creek and the Knife River at Hazen, these two sites, along with the upper James River Basin, continue to be the most at risk of major flooding.
Souris River Basin
Small stream flooding anticipated around the Minot area, and river flooding farther downstream as snowmelt water enters the Souris River. So while a high degree of certainty exists for spring flooding, the severity will still be determined by the timing, location and amount of March precipitation.
Red River Basin
2010 flooding will likely be similar to that experienced during the spring of 2009.  Locations that have a 90 percent or greater risk of reaching or exceeding major flood stage are Fargo, Abercrombie, Lisbon, Harwood and West Fargo. Significant overland flooding is likely for low-lying areas outside of primary river flood plains. Ice jam flooding will likely affect ice jam prone areas of rivers and streams.
Devils Lake Basin
The current probabilistic outlooks are now targeting a better than 90 percent risk of a two-foot rise this spring, and nearly a 40 percent chance of a three-foot rise on both Devils Lake and Stump Lake. 
Two good links for more information are:
Red River flooding:  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fgf 
James River flooding:  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bis (FEMA HQ, Region VIII, NOAA’s NWS) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 15-Mar-2010 09:01:32 EDT