Skip to content

National Situation Update: Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
Rain and mountain snow will continue to fall today and Wednesday as a storm moves from California into the Rockies and High Plains. Most of the region will see below average temperatures through Wednesday evening. The Southwest will see rain and gusty winds throughout the day. Red Flag Warnings will remain in effect for the leeward portions of all Hawaiian Islands through the evening.
Midwest:
Dense Fog will continue in the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa this morning. A continuing storm will deliver thunderstorms and up to an inch of rain in Kansas and Missouri before spreading into the Plains and Ohio Valley. A mix of rain, freezing rain and wet snow will fall across the Dakota’s and Minnesota most of the day.
South:
Severe thunderstorms will move from the Western Gulf Coast into the Middle Mississippi Valley bringing tornados, hail, and damaging wind. By evening, the system will spread into the central Gulf Coast and Southeast brining up to 4 inches of rain. Flash flooding is possible across the South from Mississippi through Florida.
Northeast:
Temperatures will remain normal with rain moving into the area by midweek.  (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Hydro Meteorological Prediction Center, and various media sources) 

Wildland Fire Outlook – March through June 2010

 On Monday, 1 March 2010, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) Predictive Services issued the Monthly and Seasonal Significant Fire Potential outlook for March through June 2010.  Significant fire potential is defined as the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require mobilization of additional resources from outside the area in which the fire situation originates. The Wildland Fire Outlook is strongly influenced by the El Nino that is forecast to continue through early summer, as well as the colder than normal temperatures for February in most of the country.

The primary factors influencing significant fire potential this outlook period are:
• Precipitation: El Niño will continue to bring above normal rainfall to the southern tier of states during March.
• Drought Conditions: Drought continues to improve in the Southwest and Nevada, but is expected to persist or worsen in the Northwest, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Drought should also persist over northern Wisconsin.
• Soil Moisture: Soil moisture values remain below normal over much of the Great Lakes region.
• Fuels: Fuel moistures are above normal from the Southwest to the eastern seaboard. However, areas of freeze-cured fuels exist in portions of the Southeast.

During March, below normal significant fire potential is expected across most of the South, western Texas, most of New Mexico and southeast Arizona. For April through June, below normal significant fire potential is expected to expand into the western half of the Mogollon Rim in Arizona.

Fire potential is expected to be normal across California through June. El Niño should continue to bring above normal rainfall to most of California in March except that the northeast corner of the state may remain drier than normal. Snowpack’s are at or above normal for late February. There has been a significant amount of tree and brush damage due to heavy snowfall, as well as some freeze-killed brush, and this will likely increase fire potential in some lower elevations this summer. Fuel moistures should remain at or above normal through the spring.

Significant fire potential will be below normal across most of the South during March through early April but will gradually transition to normal from mid April through May. As El Niño weakens during spring, rainfall events should decrease increasing the risk of fires. South-central Florida could become an area of concern in May and June as dry weather develops.

Above normal significant fire potential will emerge in northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan during April and May.

The next NIFC Predictive Services Monthly and Seasonal Significant Fire Potential outlook for April through July 2010 will be issued on Monday, 5 April 2010.
http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf   (NOAA, NWS) 

Moderate Flooding Forecast Along Iowa Tributaries to the Mississippi River

Moderate flooding is forecast on rivers in Iowa due to the rainfall over the weekend and snowmelt runoff. Moderate flooding is forecast at points on the West Fork Cedar, Cedar, Iowa, Des Moines, and Wapsipinicon Rivers. With additional rain, these forecasts may increase; however, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty about rainfall amounts and placement over the next five days, so conditions may change rapidly as the forecast temperatures or rainfall amounts are analyzed and adjusted.

Additional factors affecting flooding forecasts include the amount of winter precipitation received thus far, soil saturation conditions, current stream flows compared to historical levels, and temperatures in the area. In the Cedar and Iowa River Basins winter precipitation averaged 150 to 200 percent above normal, and the top 72 inches of soil have 2 to 3 inches of moisture above the mean. Streams have been running well above normal throughout the fall and winter, and the snow pack has very little ability to hold any more liquid content due to the condensed state of the soil from previous melt and snowfall, especially in the upper half of the basins. Similar conditions are in effect for other river basins in Iowa.

In the Wapsipinicon River Basin high stream flows and cold temperatures are contributing to ice jam flooding for many areas. Near record snowfall in the Des Moines River Basin in December, and more storms in January, brought twice the normal precipitation totals to the basin, especially for the upper Des Moines River in southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, where the top 72 inches of soil have 4 to 6 inches of moisture above the mean. High stream flows are also in effect, and freezing rain events across Iowa in January created ice lenses in the northern icepack which can affect future melt rates and increase runoff potential.

There is over an 80 percent chance of moderate flooding from March 12 to June 10 for locations along the Des Moines, Wapsipinicon and Iowa Rivers. If the snowmelt is slow with few storm systems, the flooding might be minor; however, if snowmelt is rapid in combination with significant rainfall, the potential for significant widespread flooding could be high. The next spring flood outlook for this area will be published Thursday March 11, 2010.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river forecasts precipitation and all hydrometeorological information in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) web page at:  http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc. (NWS,NOAA NCRFC, National Hydrolic Assessment 2010) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A 4.4M quake occurred on the island of Hawaii, Hawaii at 11:29 p.m. EST, Mar 8, approximately 20 miles WNW from Hilo, HI at a depth of 19.3 miles. Weak to light shaking was felt at numerous locations across the island of Hawaii; however, there have been no reports of significant damage or injury.  A tsunami was not generated. (USGS) 

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Major Disaster Declaration FEMA 1884-DR, for California was signed March 8, 2010 as a result of severe winter storms, flooding, debris and mud flows that occurred Jan 17 to Feb 6, 2010. The declaration provides Public Assistance to 6 counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide. (FEMA HQ) 

Last Modified: Tuesday, 09-Mar-2010 08:14:20 EST