Skip to content

National Situation Update: Monday, March 8, 2010

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
An area of low pressure will continue to produce rain and snow from the Southwest into the Southern Rockies.  A cold front in the Northwest will bring showers and snow to parts of Washington, Oregon, Northern California into the Northern Rockies.  Tuesday into Wednesday, a second cold front will bring showers and snow into the Rockies and High Plains.  Both of these systems from the Northwest will feed into the bigger storm in the middle of the country. 
Midwest:
Dense Fog advisories are in effect for the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa.  A storm moving out of the Southwest will bring rain and thunderstorms to the Southern Plains later today. The Storm will slowly move into the Midwest on Tuesday producing a mix of rain, freezing rain and wet snow across the Dakota’s and Minnesota.  Rainfall may top one inch in the Central Plains; a flood watch is in effect for parts of Nebraska.
South:
Strong thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the Southwest with a threat of tornadoes in south central Texas. Strong winds could accompany the storms with gusts of 70 mph possible in the mountains east of El Paso.  Low relative humidity will produce critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and evening hours in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama.  
Northeast:
Today a cold front will move into New York and New England. Temperatures will remain above average.  Midweek a cold front approaching from the Midwest will bring rain to parts of the Mid Atlantic states.  Northern New York and Northern New England may see an inch of snow in the mountains.
(NOAA’s National Weather Service, Hydro Meteorological Prediction Center, and various media sources) 

El Nino expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010

 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced on Friday that a moderate-to-strong El Niño continued during February 2010, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies exceeding 1.5°C in parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean at the end of the month.  Equatorial low-level westerly wind anomalies also strengthened during February, while upper-level easterly wind anomalies weakened slightly.  Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a moderate-to-strong El Niño episode.
The majority of models predict a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions near the onset of Northern Hemisphere summer. Several models suggest the potential of continued weak El Niño conditions through 2010, while others predict the develop-ment of La Niña conditions later in the year. Predicting when El Niño will dissipate and what may follow remains highly uncertain.  
El Niño impacts are expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere spring, partly in response to the typical warming that occurs between now and April/May.  For the contiguous United States, potential El Niño impacts include above-average precipitation for the Southwest, the south-central states, and Florida, and below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region.  Above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern tier of states (excluding New England and the Northern Plains), while below-average temperatures are favored for the south-central and southeastern states.  Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 April 2010.  For additional information see:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml 

Red River Basin - Spring Flood Outlook as of March 5, 2010

 Major flooding is likely for most locations on the main stem of the Red River of the North and many locations on its North Dakota tributaries across southeastern North Dakota, due to the excessive rainfall experienced last fall. The amount of water in the snowpack and the prospects for additional moisture through the spring snow-melt period will determine the magnitude and extent of spring 2010 flooding will likely be similar to that experienced during the spring of 2009.

Locations that have a 90% or greater risk of reaching or exceeding major flood stage are Fargo, Abercrombie, Lisbon, Harwood and West Fargo. The  locations that have a near 50% or greater risk of reaching or exceeding major flood stage are Wahpeton, Halstad, Grand Forks, Oslo, Drayton and Pembina on the Red River and Grafton on the Park River.

Except for Wahpeton and Fargo, the chances of exceeding major flood stage on the main stem of the Red River are down a bit. For the North Dakota and Minnesota tributaries, all except Abercrombie and Harwood are the same or down a bit for major flooding. Also, significant overland flooding is likely for low-lying areas outside of primary river flood plains. Ice jam flooding will likely affect ice jam prone areas of rivers and streams.

The St. Paul District of the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers has started a maximum drawdown of all their flood control reservoirs in the red river basin in advance of the spring flood melt. The National Weather Service is coordinating with them on release schedules to lessen the flood
impacts downstream of these reservoirs.

If the snow melt is not already in progress, the next outlook may be issued on Friday, March 19, 2010. Otherwise, they will be issued monthly throughout the rest of the year during the later part
of the month or updated as conditions warrant.

The major flood stage for the Red River of the North at Halstad will be lowered from 40 feet to 37.5 feet on Monday, March 8, 2010. Currently, there is about a 68% chance for the river there to reach or exceeding the new major flood stage. 
For the latest updates see: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=49321&source=0 
(NOAA’s National Weather Service) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

U.S. Activity
There were no significant earthquakes in the United States or its territories.
International Activity
Turkey
 A 5.9 magnitude earthquake occurred on March 7, 2010 at 9:32 p.m. EST, approximately 65 miles south southeast of Erzincan, Turkey.  The earthquake occurred at a depth of 6.2 miles.  There have been media reports of damage and injuries.  A 5.5 magnitude aftershock occurred shortly thereafter at the same depth.  There have been media reports of damages and injuries.(USGS; WCATWC; PTWC) 

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 08-Mar-2010 07:53:16 EST