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National Situation Update: Monday, November 16, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Temperatures will cool across the northeast and Mid-Atlantic as a cold front moves in, producing highs from the 40s in northern New England and upstate New York to the 60s in the Mid-Atlantic.

South
A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to Arkansas, Louisiana, eastern Texas, Mississippi and western Tennessee.  Behind the front, gusty northwest winds will develop over much of Texas and Oklahoma.  The front will slowly move east tomorrow and Wednesday, spreading scattered showers through Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia.

Midwest
A low pressure system will move slowly across the Midwest today and Tuesday, with rainy and breezy conditions expected over the mid-Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes.
Areas from Missouri to central Illinois and southern Iowa may see an additional 1 to 4 inches of rain.  Snow or a rain/snow mixture is expected over parts of Kansas, southern Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

West
A cold front will move into the Northwest today and Tuesday, bringing significant moisture to Washington and Oregon.  Heavy rain will target northwest Washington, causing possible river flooding in the Olympics and northern Cascades; snow in the higher elevations could cause avalanches.  Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet will be possible by Tuesday along the Cascade crest.  Wind gusts between 60 and 80 mph can be expected along the immediate coast of Oregon and Washington   (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

NOAA Reports October Third Coolest on Record with Highest Precipitation

According to NOAA’s State of the Climate report, October was the third coolest month on record for average temperatures across the contiguous United States.  Below average temperatures were recorded in all regions except the Southeast.  The October average temperature of 50.8 degrees F was 4.0 degrees below the 20th Century average. 

Preliminary data also indicates that October was the wettest month on record, reaching 4.15 inches, or 2.04 inches above the average between 1901 and 2001.  This was the first month since December 2007 that no region in the United States recorded below normal precipitation.

East Coast Nor'Easter

•  New Jersey EOC has returned to normal operations
  
•  Governor has declared a State of Emergency for six coastal counties (Atlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Monmouth and Ocean Counties)
  
•  Several hundred homes and about 50 to 100 businesses were affected by the storm, which also caused significant beach erosion and flooding along the Jersey Shore
  
•  Joint IA and PA PDAs for seven counties are scheduled to begin on Tuesday, November 17; additional counties may be added later
  
•  Virginia’s Governor declared a State of Emergency
  
•  Virginia EOC remains partially activated  for possible hazmat issues (barrel recovery in some of the affected areas)
  
•  LNO remains at the Virginia EOC
  
•  Chief Medical Examiner has declared four fatalities due to the storm
  
•  Power has been restored to the majority of the affected areas, with only about 300 outages remaining
  
•  One shelter open in Norfolk City; population 50
  
•  Alabama will begin PA PDAs for two counties on November 17
  
•  Louisiana will begin IA and PA PDAs on November 17 for two parishes

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Monday afternoon.
Western Pacific
No activity threatening United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Note: Fire season is coming to an end - the National Interagency Coordination Center will issue reports only on Fridays unless there is significant activity.
• National Preparedness Level:  1
• National Fire Activity as of  Friday, November 13, 2009
• Initial attack activity:  Light (108 new fires)
• New large fires:  1
• Large fires contained:  1
• Uncontained large fires:  0
• States affected:  AZ and MO  (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)