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National Situation Update: Thursday, November 12, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
The central and eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina will see rain and gusty winds. The strongest winds, from 35 to 45 mph with gusts from 55 to 65 mph, will be near the coast; some power outages are possible. Central North Carolina eastward to the coast may see rain totals of 2 to 4 inches; far eastern North Carolina may see 10 inches or more of rain, causing widespread flooding. The Outer Banks will see coastal flooding, beach erosion and high surf.
Northeast
Coastal Virginia northward to the Del-Mar-Va Peninsula, coastal New Jersey, Long Island and coastal southern New England, will see strong, gusty winds. The coastal areas of Virginia and the Del-Mar-Va Peninsula will see the strongest winds, possibly as high as 65 mph, over the next couple of days. The coastal portions of the Del-Mar-Va Peninsula and Virginia will also be impacted by coastal flooding, beach erosion, and high rising surf over the next couple of days.
West
Two systems will impact the region bringing rain and mountain snow over the next couple of days across the Northwest and the Rockies. The first system will affect areas from Oregon and Washington to Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, northern Nevada, Utah and Colorado. The second system will arrive tonight into Friday and will bring more rain and mountain snow from Oregon, Washington and northern California to Idaho. The central and southern Rockies will also see additional snow.
Midwest
A cold front will bring showers into the Dakotas and northern Minnesota tonight. Areas from Kansas and eastern Nebraska to Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin may see gusty winds. By Friday the rain will move east from Minnesota, Wisconsin and upper Michigan southwestward to Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas. (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources) 

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Remnants of Ida   
The remnants of Ida have been absorbed by a non-tropical low pressure system and are causing heavy rains over eastern North Carolina northward from Virginia to New Jersey.  The low is located 50 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina. This low is forecast to move off the North Carolina coast today and then turn east on Friday before heading into the Atlantic. Strong easterly and northeasterly winds from the Virginia coast northward into southern New England, combined with heavy rains from 3 to 5 inches, may cause significant coastal flooding.
Non-tropical low          
A non-tropical low pressure area is centered 300 miles south-southwest of Bermuda. The low is moving north-northeastward at 15 mph. There is a less than 30 percent chance of this system becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone before it is absorbed within a frontal zone later today.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday afternoon.
Western Pacific 
No activity threatening United States Territories.(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) 

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

• National Preparedness Level:  1
• National Fire Activity as of  Wednesday, November 11, 2009
• Initial attack activity:  Light (66 new fires)
• New large fires:  2
• Large fires contained:  5
• Uncontained large fires:  1
• States affected:  AZ, NM, and KY  (NIFC) 

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)