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National Situation Update: Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
Remnants of Tropical Storm Ida will spread heavy rain and gusty winds thorough parts of Alabama, Georgia and the western Carolinas today.  This evening, rain should be covering North and South Carolina, with the western edge extending into Georgia and northern Florida.  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected from Alabama and northern Florida through central North Carolina by this evening; localized amounts may exceed 8 inches.    Coastal Flood Warnings and Watches are in effect from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle as Ida brings higher than normal tides to many areas.  Additional Flood Watches are in effect for inland areas of Mississippi and Alabama.  Heavy rain on saturated soil, combined with gusty winds, may result in downed trees and power lines.  Drier conditions are expected over the rest of the Southeast.
It will be dry and warm west of the Mississippi River for the next two days.

Northeast
By Tuesday night, rain from the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida will move up to Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, southern Pennsylvania, and southern New Jersey.  Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes on Wednesday should push the rain off the east Coast by early evening.

Midwest
High pressure will result in mostly sunny skies through midweek.  Some clouds and a few late day showers may develop over the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Wednesday as a weakening Pacific storm moves in.

West
Another cold front will move into the Pacific Northwest coast Tuesday night and Wednesday, resulting in steady rain and snow.  Rain and snow amounts should be generally light during the day Tuesday with heavier amounts possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.  (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources) 

Tropical Storm Ida

Current Situation
Forecast/Advisory #26 

• Tropical Storm Ida is slowly moving northward toward the Gulf Coast as it weakens a little more.
• A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana, eastward to the Aucilla River, Florida, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
• The center of Tropical Storm Ida is located about 60 miles, south-southwest of Mobile, Alabama.
• Ida is moving toward the north near 9 mph.  A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Ida should reach the northern gulf coast later this morning.  After landfall, Ida is expected to turn eastward.
• Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph, with higher gusts.  Some additional weakening is expected today and Ida is expected to merge with a frontal zone on Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.
• Ida is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches through Wednesday evening from the central and eastern Gulf coast across the Southeastern United States into the southern Mid-Atlantic States.
• A dangerous storm tide will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level along the coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall, as well as in areas of onshore flow in southeastern Louisiana.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 
• A 4-6 foot storm surge, mainly east of the Mississippi River and south of New Orleans
• A 3-4 foot storm surge around New Orleans/ Lake Ponchartrain

Federal HQ Coordination

• FEMA NRCC activated at Level III (Partial Activation), 24/7 with select activation team members supporting 24 hour operations until deactivated 
• MERS support detachments are on alert
• FEMA Regions I, III, V, and VII IMATs and ERT-As are on alert, in the order listed, to serve as back up to any affected regions, ESFs 7 and 15 activated
• Logistics Management Directorate activated and stock levels verified.

FEMA Regional Coordination

Region IV
• The RRCC is activated from 0700 a.m. – 7:00 p.m. EST  24/7 Watch
• Region IV IMAT has arrived at Maxwell AFB, AL. 
• Pre-designated member of the Federal Coordinating Officer Cadre has arrived at the Alabama EOC
• FEMA Liaison at Florida EOC
• PDA teams (IA & PA) on standby
• No shortfalls reported at this time

Region IV State Actions:
Florida
• Florida EOC is activated
• Governor declared a State of Emergency for the panhandle and costal counties (seven total)
• Five SERT Liaisons are prepositioned to support affected counties
• FEMA Liaison deployed to the state EOC
• Voluntary evacuation order for Escambia County including Pensacola 
• 8 shelters open; population 75

Alabama
• Alabama EOC activated
• Governor declared a State of Emergency
• 5 shelters open population 29
• The EOC is preparing for possible evacuations
• Baldwin County – one shelter
• Mobile County- three shelters

Mississippi
• Mississippi EOC activated
• Governor declared a State of Emergency
• 3 shelters open; unknown population 
• The Southeast River Forecast Center has begun 24-hour operations. 

Georgia
• Georgia EOC activated (Monitoring)
• Heavy rain event Tuesday through Wednesday, no widespread major flooding
• On standby to assist AL and FL

Region VI
• RRCC at Watch/Steady State and monitoring.  Region VI is activated at Level III operating 24/7
• Region VI IMAT deployed to Baton Rouge and will setup an IOF
• FEMA Liaison reported to Louisiana EOC
• No further deployments or activations anticipated; however, ESFs and IA/PA/PDA teams including Mitigation have been rostered
• No shortfalls have been reported at this time

Region VI State Actions
Louisiana
• Louisiana activated their Crisis Action Team at noon on Sunday, Nov. 8
• Louisiana EOC activated 24/7
• Selected state agencies are present in the EOC
• Governor Jindal has declared a State of Emergency for ten parishes in Southeastern Louisiana
• Voluntary evacuations are underway in low lying areas
• Plaquemines Parish – has one shelter open

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical Storm IDA 
• Tropical Storm Ida continues to weaken as it nears the Gulf coast.
Trough of Low Pressure
• Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands are associated with a trough of low pressure. 
• Development of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it moves generally WNW at 10 to 15 MPH over the next 48 hours.  There is a low chance less than 30% of this system developing.

Eastern Pacific
• Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
• No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday afternoon.

Western Pacific
• No activity threatening United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) 

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  1
National Fire Activity as of Monday, November 9, 2009
Initial attack activity:  Light (35 new fires)
New large fires:  4
Large fires contained:  3
Uncontained large fires:  3
States affected:  AZ, NM, KY, TN, FL (NIFC) 

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)