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National Situation Update: Thursday, November 5, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West: A strong frontal system will move ashore producing heavy precipitation and gusty winds from Washington to central California. Rainfall totals will range from a few tenths of an inch near San Francisco and an inch or more in the coastal areas of Washington and Oregon to four to five inches in the Olympic and Cascade Mountain ranges. Snow levels in the Cascades will start out around 6,000 feet lowering to near 3,500 feet tomorrow and dropping further during the weekend. Gusty winds between 50 and 60 mph are forecast for the coast and higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest.
Additional weather systems and heavy precipitation are forecast to impact the region through the weekend.

Midwest: Under high pressure much of the region will have clear skies.  The only significant weather will be light rain or snow showers across Michigan and northeast Ohio from a weak frontal system over the Great Lakes.

South: High pressure will dominate the region over the next two days with clear skies and little or no precipitation.  The exception will be south Florida where a weak front will produce a few showers and thunderstorms.

Northeast: An upper trough combined with a rapidly developing area of low pressure off the East Coast will produce a wintry mix for most of the region. Interior locations from West Virginia to Maine will see a mixture of scattered rain and snow showers. Significant accumulations of snow will be limited to a few inches over the higher terrain. Rain showers are forecast for the coastal areas from the mid-Atlantic to New England. Gusty northwesterly winds are forecast tonight through tomorrow for much of New England especially coastal areas due to the developing low off the coast. Temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below average for the next few days. Highs will only reach into the 40s over interior areas to 50s along the coast. The precipitation will taper off by tomorrow except for coastal New England. (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources) 

Region VI –Flooding in Texas and Louisiana

• Region VI RRCC is at Watch / Steady State and monitoring.
• Texas and Louisiana State liaison officers are on standby.
• IA and PA PDA teams remain on standby for both states.
• There have been no requests for Federal assistance for either state.
Texas
• Heavy thunderstorms passed through eastern Texas on October 29 and 30th causing minor to moderate flooding on the Sabine, Neches and Trinity rivers in eastern Texas.
• The main reservoirs in the middle Sabine River are full and contributing to the higher flow in the river system. The Toledo Bend Reservoir is falling due to current release operations.
• The Toledo Bend release operations continue to drive water levels on the lower Sabine River.
• Major flooding is forecast along the Sabine River in Deweyville, TX (Newton County) on Saturday, Nov 7. Some neighborhoods in low lying areas may be inundated with water.
• There is one shelter open in Deweyville with 21 occupants.
• Seventeen hundred (1,700) gallons of water has been delivered to the Community of Deweyville.
• The Texas State Operations Center (SOC) is at Level I (Emergency Conditions) for border security operations and flood response in Newton and Jasper Counties.
Louisiana
• On October 28, 2009, severe storms produced heavy rain, wind, and tornadoes across the north and west portions of Louisiana. On October 30th, the Governor declared a statewide State of Emergency.
• Flooding of low lying areas has been reported in Bossier, Caddo, Desoto, Webster and Ouachita Parishes. Once the water recedes each parish will determine the need for PDA’s.
• The USCG has closed 111 miles of the Ouachita River from the Arkansas/Louisiana Border to near Columbia, LA to all commercial and residential traffic due to extreme high water and strong current conditions. The Ouachita River at Monroe is above major flood stage and expected to crest near 48 feet on November 9.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ida
As of 4:00 a.m. EST, on November 5, 2009, the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located about 815 miles south of Key West, FL (1,275 miles south-southeast of New Orleans, LA).  The storm is moving toward the northwest at 7 mph and a gradual turn to the north-northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track Ida should make landfall along the east coast of Nicaragua this morning and move across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Ida could briefly reach hurricane strength before making landfall this morning. Weakening is expected once Ida moves inland over Nicaragua later today. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure is located about 250 miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The upper-level wind environment is becoming less conducive for development and there is a low chance (less than 30 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning.

Western Pacific 
No activity.(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

At 10:16 p.m. EST, November 4, 2009, a 4.7 magnitude earthquake occurred 152 miles south-southwest of Nikolski, AK (192 miles east-southeast of Atka, AK) at a depth of 6.2 miles.  No reports of injury, damage or tsunami.(USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program) 

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)