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National Situation Update: Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Midwest
Rain and snow showers are forecast through the upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Some areas of northern Michigan could experience 1 to 3 inches of snow. Winds across the Plains are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph. A few snow showers are possible across the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday morning.

Northeast
Frost advisories and freeze warnings are in effect for southeastern Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey; wet snowflakes may mix with rain showers overnight. Light precipitation is expected to move over eastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware tonight; Virginia should see precipitation Thursday morning. Rain and snow showers will fall across the region on Thursday with some snow accumulation possible above 1,500 feet.

West
High temperatures in areas from southern Oregon to Arizona may threaten record highs this afternoon. Rain is forecast over the Northwest on Thursday.

South
No precipitation is forecast over the next few days for the flood-ravaged areas of Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and Louisiana. Showers are expected for central and southern Florida today and Thursday, and possibly across the coastal sections of North Carolina early Thursday. (NOAA’s National Weather Service) 

Flooding and Tornados in Louisiana

 On October 28, 2009, severe storms produced heavy rain, wind, and tornadoes across the north and west portions of Louisiana. Twenty-three parishes declared local States of Emergency. Flooding of low lying areas was reported in LaSalle, Catahoula, Natchitoches, and Beauregard Parishes. Flood Warnings continue along the Sabine River at Deweyville and Bon Weir; both locations are forecast to rise to major flood stage within the next couple of days. Numerous roads remain closed throughout the state. The Ouachita River remains closed for all commercial vessels due to rising floodwaters and the saturated conditions of the levees. The Ouachita River at Monroe is above major flood stage and expected to crest on November 12. The North Bossier flood advisory has changed to “Watch” and residents have been told they may return home.
State/Local Response:
On October 30, 2009, the Governor declared a statewide State of Emergency to assist in the deployment and staging of state assets to support affected parishes. Louisiana Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) activated the Crisis Action Team (CAT) on October 22, 2009. The CAT will remain activated until further notice.
Federal Actions:
Region VI RRCC is at Watch / Steady State and monitoring. State LNO is on standby. IA and PA PDA teams are on standby. There has been no request for Federal assistance. (Region VI, Upper and Lower Mississippi River Forecast Centers) 

Arkansas Severe Storms and Flooding

On October 29-30, 2009, severe storms, tornadoes, and flash flooding occurred across the State of Arkansas. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rainfall of 5-8 inches in the central and eastern counties. The heaviest band of rain was from Ouachita County to Pulaski County and Independence County.

Numerous roads were under water and water rescues occurred. Some homes and apartments were flooded. A couple of subdivisions in Lonoke County were evacuated. There was major flooding along the Spring River in Sharp County and Randolph County. Flash flooding was widespread from Polk County to Johnson County. In Newton County, there was at least one mudslide, with rocks and other debris on area highways.

NWS reported 7 tornadoes in the Little Rock County warning area. Two tornadoes were reported in the East Camden area damaging at least 30 empty train tank cars. Damage was most extensive around the Southern Arkansas University Tech and Highland Industrial Park areas.

Joint PA PDA teams will begin preliminary damage assessments in 45-50 counties on Monday, November 9. (Region VI, NWS) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
At 1:00 a.m. EST, cloudiness and showers associated with an area of low pressure in the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea continue to show signs of organization. The low is expected to move little over the next day or so. Upper-level winds are favorable for some additional development. There is a medium chance, 30 to 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning.
Western Pacific
No activity threatening United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) 

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)