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National Situation Update: Friday, October 30, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West:
A low pressure trough will produce light precipitation over western sections of Washington and Oregon. Expect a rain/snow mix in the lowest elevations across the northern and central Rockies. Another Pacific system will move ashore tonight producing showers and snow in higher elevations from Washington to northern California.
Midwest:
A frontal system extending from the Great Lakes to the Louisiana Gulf Coast will produce significant precipitation (an additional one to two inches) across the region. Flooding is likely over many locations. Areas on the backside of the low will receive a combination of wet snow and rain. Tomorrow, the front and the precipitation will move eastward into Michigan and the Ohio Valley.
South: 
The frontal system discussed above will combine with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to produce widespread heavy precipitation, thunderstorms and flooding from Texas to Georgia and Tennessee. This ground is already saturated and the additional one to two inches of precipitation is forecast to produce river flooding and localized flash flooding. Some of the thunderstorms may become severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, large hail and even tornadoes. Tomorrow, the front will move into the Southeast and some locations could get an inch or more of rain.
Northeast:
Much of the region will be dry except for a few showers in Upstate New York, western and central Pennsylvania, western Maryland and West Virginia this afternoon. The weekend rain will move across the Appalachians tomorrow and the East Coast by Sunday. Some areas may receive as much as two inches. (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources) 

The Sun's Sneaky Variability

 

Every 11 years, the sun undergoes a furious upheaval. Dark sunspots burst forth from beneath the sun's surface. Explosions as powerful as a billion atomic bombs spark intense flares of high-energy radiation. Clouds of gas big enough to swallow planets break away from the sun and billow into space.
Almost none of the drama of Solar Maximum is visible to the human eye. Look at the sun in the noontime sky and—ho-hum—it's the same old bland ball of bright light.
"The problem is, human eyes are tuned to the wrong wavelength," explains Tom Woods, a solar physicist at the University of Colorado in Boulder. "If you want to get a good look at solar activity, you need to look in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV)."
EUV is a high-energy form of ultraviolet radiation with wavelengths between 1 and 120 nanometers. EUV photons are much more energetic and dangerous than the ordinary UV rays that cause sunburns. Fortunately for humans, Earth's atmosphere blocks solar EUV; otherwise a day at the beach could be fatal.
When the sun is active, intense solar EUV emissions can rise and fall by factors of thousands in just a matter of minutes. These surges heat Earth's upper atmosphere, puffing it up and increasing the drag on satellites. EUV photons also break apart atoms and molecules, creating a layer of ions in the upper atmosphere that can severely disturb radio signals.
To monitor these energetic photons, NASA is going to launch a sensor named "EVE," short for EUV Variability Experiment, onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory as early as this winter.
"EVE gives us the highest time resolution (10 sec) and the highest spectral resolution (< 0.1 nm) that we've ever had for measuring the sun, and we'll have it 24/7," says Woods, the lead scientist for EVE. "This is a huge improvement over past missions."
Although EVE is designed to study solar activity, its first order of business is to study solar inactivity. SDO is going to launch during the deepest solar minimum in almost 100 years. Sunspots, flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are at low ebb.
The sun's intrinsic variability and its potential for future changes are not fully understood—hence the need for EVE.(excerpt from Science@NASA http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/27oct_eve.htm?list1329758 )

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

 No activity. (FEMA HQ) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Shower and thunderstorm activity extending from the southwestern coast of Mexico southward over the Pacific Ocean for several hundred miles is diminishing. Significant development, if any, should be slow to occur and there is a low chance (less than 30 percent) of tropical cyclone formation in this area during the next 48 hours. Moisture associated with this system could still produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next day or two.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday evening.
Western Pacific 
No activity threatening United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There was no significant earthquake activity in the United States or its territories during the last 24 hours.

At 3:03 a.m. EDT, October 30, 2009, a magnitude 6.9 earthquake occurred approximately 172 miles south of Kagoshima, Kyushu, Japan and 253 miles northeast of Okinawa, Japan at a depth of 31.1 miles.  There have been no reports of injuries or damages. No tsunami was generated.  No significant activity. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

 National Preparedness Level:  1
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, October 29, 2009
Initial attack activity:  Light (26 new fires)
New large fires:  0
Large fires contained:  0
Uncontained large fires:  1
States affected:  AZ (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Friday, 30-Oct-2009 08:01:45 EDT