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National Situation Update: Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West: 
The frontal system dropping out of the Rockies will continue to produce snow over much of that mountain range as it moves into the northwestern Plains. Snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are likely with more than a foot expected in higher terrain. Areas as far south as the Desert Southwest will see unseasonable snowfall in conjunction with this front. Some areas behind the front are experiencing temperatures more than 25 degrees below average for this time of year. The Southwest, from California to Texas, will have gusty winds. Sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts over 60 mph are possible across southern Arizona, New Mexico and west Texas. Fire danger will be high in the Desert Southwest, especially California and Arizona due to the strong winds and low relative humidity levels. A new storm system, containing the remnants of Hurricane Neki, will hit the Pacific Northwest tonight. The low pressure center will move into Canada, but the associated frontal system will pass through Washington and Oregon producing 3 to 5 inches of rain in coastal mountains.

Midwest: 
The frontal system dropping out of the Rockies will produce a wintry mix of rain and snow is forecast from the Dakotas to Nebraska. The precipitation will spread southeastward throughout the day. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be transported into the storm enhancing the rain and snow over the Plains. Conditions elsewhere in the region will be dry, but sustained winds are forecast to be 10 to 15 mph with gusts over 25 mph.

South: 
Under high pressure most of the region will get a brief respite from precipitation. The tail end of a cold front will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern and central Florida. The southern Plains and Texas will have sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 40 mph by afternoon. The strongest winds are forecast in the mountains of southwest Texas and southern New Mexico, with sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts over 60 mph. Tonight the cold front will move into western Oklahoma and central Texas producing severe thunderstorms and the potential for isolated tornadoes. By tomorrow afternoon the front will move eastward into eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, western Arkansas and western Louisiana.

Northeast: 
The low pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic will produce a large band of precipitation that will move across the region today. Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible from Virginia to New England by the time the storm moves off shore tonight.(NOAA’s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources) 

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic 
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific 
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extend from the coast of Mexico near Acapulco southward for a few hundred miles. Slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it remains nearly stationary. There is a low chance (less than 30 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific 
Thunderstorms have increased in an area approximately 975 miles southeast of Honolulu during the past several hours. Tropical cyclone within this area, if any, would be slow to occur as it continues moving to the west near 10 mph. Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning.
Western Pacific 
Typhoon 23W (Mirinae) At 11:00 p.m. EDT, October 27, the center of Typhoon 23W (Mirinae) was located about 630 miles west-northwest of Guam and poses no further threat to United States Territories.(NOAA, HPC, National
Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

 National Preparedness Level:  1 National Fire Activity as of  Tuesday, October 27, 2009 Initial attack activity:  Light (28 new fires)  New large fires: 0 Large fires contained: 0 Uncontained large fires: 1 States affected: CA  (NIFC) 

Loma Fire, Santa Cruz County, California – Final Update 
The Loma Fire started Sunday, 25 Oct, twelve miles northeast of Santa Cruz, CA, on the border of Santa Cruz and Santa Clara Counties. 485 acres of brush and timber have been consumed; the fire is 100% contained.  There is no further threat, and mandatory evacuations have been lifted.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)