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National Situation Update: Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
Moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms can be expected along the Gulf Coast states and into Georgia. Rain will continue to fall along the East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic States to central Florida through Wednesday. Areas from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Carolina coast could pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain, with some areas receiving 3 to 4 inches locally. Localized flooding is possible across the Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas. Temperatures will range from the upper 50s to middle 60s in the northern areas while temperatures in the southern portions will be mainly in the mid 70s and upper 80s across Florida.
Northeast
Showers are expected inland from northern and eastern Virginia northward through eastern Maryland, Delaware, southern New Jersey, and southeastern Pennsylvania this morning. 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible from southern Virginia north to southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey through Wednesday morning with up to 3 inches possible along the coast. Rain, sleet and snow showers are possible for northern New York and northern New England. High temperatures will range from the middle 30s in northern and eastern Maine to the lower to middle 60s along the southern coastal plain.
Midwest
Rain will spread into the middle Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley by this afternoon, with some locally heavy rain possible by nightfall in the Ohio Valley. The rain will slowly move northward into lower Great Lakes tonight and Wednesday. On Wednesday a major storm will move into the Dakotas with some light rain showers. Cold air may change the rain over to snow over the western parts of North and South Dakota by Wednesday evening, with accumulating snow possible Wednesday night. The major storm moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains Thursday will bring heavy rain and damaging thunderstorms to a large area from southern Kansas through eastern Texas.
West
A major storm system will enter the Northwest today producing rain, snow, and very blustery winds across a large portion of the Northwest. Low-elevation rain and mountain snow will continue to spread eastward into the northern Rockies. Widespread snow is expected to impact the western U.S. behind the frontal system now moving inland. More than a foot of heavy snow is expected over the higher elevations of the Washington and Oregon Cascades and Wyoming and Utah. Temperatures will plunge behind the front, dropping the freezing level and creating conditions favorable for widespread snow as far south as central Arizona on Wednesday. Temperatures may drop as much as 30 degrees behind the front. High winds will also be prevalent across much of the desert southwest as a result of this system.Wind advisories and high wind watches have been posted across parts of the region in anticipation of strong winds today and Wednesday. Sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph, with gusts of 60 to 80 mph, are possible over parts of Wyoming, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and California.(NOAA’s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources) 

NOAA Prepares Citizens for Possible El Niño Impacts in Hawaii and the Pacific

NOAA climate experts say the strengthening El Niño could mean a greater chance of late-season tropical cyclone development in the central Pacific, more high surf and less rainfall for the Hawaiian Islands during the upcoming wet season, which normally runs from October through April.

“Following the hurricane season, the presence of El Niño is expected to bring drier than normal conditions for the remainder of the wet season,” said Kevin Kodama, senior service hydrologist at NOAA’s Honolulu Forecast Office. “Drier than normal conditions will worsen existing severe to extreme drought over portions of the State if early wet season rainfall in October and November does not materialize.”

Current sea surface temperatures and computer models point to a continued strengthening of El Niño conditions through the upcoming winter season. The central Pacific has already seen an above average number of tropical cyclones during this year’s hurricane season. An El Niño has the potential to create conditions that are ripe for tropical systems to develop near the end of the hurricane season.

The Territories of Guam and American Samoa and the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands are also subject to weather extremes during El Niño. (NOAA, Oct 20, 2009) 

Puerto Rico Petrochemical Storage Facility Fire – Final Update

An explosion and fire at a petrochemical storage facility near San Juan, Puerto Rico on October 23 was extinguished October 25, 2009. Located in the City of Cantano, 21 of 40 storage tanks containing diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, jet fuel, and other petroleum products were damaged - 17 burned and 4 collapsed. FEMA-3306-EM-PR was approved Oct 24 for Public Assistance (Category B).
Current Situation
All fires have been extinguished and recovery operations are underway. Shelters are closed; evacuees have returned to their homes; and evacuated inmates have been returned to their correctional facilities. All schools are scheduled to be open today. Maritime operations in San Juan Harbor have returned to normal.
Ongoing Actions/objectives:
• A Joint Field Office (JFO) is being established in Hato Rey, PR. A Public Assistance Applicant Briefing is scheduled for October 27, 2009. Two FEMA Liaison Officers, four RII IMAT personnel and the Caribbean Area Division are supporting the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency (PREMA).
• Environmental monitoring and containment is being coordinated through a Unified Command Group (UCG) of EPA, USCG, and PR Environmental Quality Board (PREQB). The UCG will be operating 24 hours a day with 12 hour operational periods.
• Caribbean Petroleum Corporation (CaPeCo) will implement oil spill containment and recovery operations to prevent additional oil and oily waste discharge. UCG will monitor CaPeCo oil containment operations and assess the current/potential impact to the surrounding wetlands, streams, and ponds in the affected area.
• Cause of the explosion and fires remains under investigation. (Region II, JFO)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

 No activity. (FEMA HQ) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific
There are no threats to U.S. interests.
Central Pacific
Tropical Depression Neki –Final Advisory
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of TD Neki was located about 665 miles north-northwest of Lihue, Hawaii, moving toward the north-northeast near 36 mph. TD Neki is dissipating, and remnants will continue to move rapidly north-northeast over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gust. Weakening is expected to continue until dissipation.
Tropical Storm 23W
TS 23W has passed north of Guam and Rota and is moving away from the Mariana Islands. At 11:30 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm 23W was located 85 miles west-northwest of Rota and 100 miles northwest of Guam, moving west-northwest at 17 mph. This motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph, and extend outward up to 85 miles north and 40 miles south of the center. TS 23W is expected to continue tracking west-northwest and intensify over the next 24 hours. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National fire activity as of Monday, October 26: National Preparedness is at Level 1. Initial attack activity is Light (10 new fires) with two uncontained large fires in Arizona and California, and no new large fires reported on Monday.(NIFC)

Loma Fire, Santa Cruz County, California – Final Update
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection reports the Loma Fire has consumed about 485 acres of brush and timber and is 55% contained. The fire broke out about 6:00 a.m. EDT Sunday near California Route 17, on the border of Santa Cruz and Santa Clara. Authorities ordered residents to evacuate approximately 150 homes; however, evacuations have been lifted and all roads have reopened. CAL FIRE reports 4 injured in connection with the blaze. One trailer and two outbuildings were destroyed. There is no further threat to structures or personnel; and full containment is expected today. (California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, CAL FIRE, Region IX) 

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Tuesday, 27-Oct-2009 08:05:36 EDT