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National Situation Update: Sunday, September 20, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
Rain predicted from the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Southeast. Areas of rain and thunderstorms will continue to develop producing localized multi-inch downpours and more flash flooding. Oklahoma, potions of Texas and Arkansas will be dry. Rain this week for much of the region as a cold front followed with an upper level low moves into the south-central states.
Northeast
Most of the northeast will be dry but showers and a few thunderstorms may move into West Virginia and southwestern Virginia today. Highs later in the week will be in the 70s almost region wide after a frosty start in northern New York to Vermont. Showers will stay west of the Hudson and Delaware Valleys on Monday, but move over the entire region by Tuesday and Wednesday as the high pressure area moves away and moisture moves in from the South and Midwest.
Midwest
Showers and thunderstorms will move northward into the Ohio Valley today and into the Great Lakes Monday. Showers and scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will move across the Plains and into the northern Mississippi Valley Monday. The Plains will experience much cooler temperatures with highs up to 15 degrees below average in South Dakota and Nebraska on Monday and as much as 20 degrees below average in Nebraska and Kansas by Tuesday. The region will continue to experience showers due to an upper-level low over the central Plains.
West                                       
Showers and scattered thunderstorms, a few strong, will move across Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and northern New Mexico. Highs today will range from the much cooler 50s, 60s and low 70s in Montana to the 90s in the Central Valley of California and between 100 and 110 in the Desert Southwest. By Tuesday, the Central Valley of California will experience temperatures over 100. Some record highs are possible. (NOAA's National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

California Wildfire

Station Fire
Located in the Angeles National Forest, investigation reveals that arson caused the fire. Fire crews continue to mop up, patrol areas, and continue fire suppression repair. 160,557 acres burned; 93% contained. Estimated containment date has been moved forward to Tuesday, September 22, 2009. FMAG-2830-FM-CA approved August 28, 2009.
Vail Fire
Fire located in Riverside County, CA has burned 217 acres and is 0% contained. 15 residential structures have been destroyed and 30 residences are threatened. A State FMAG Request for the Vail Fire is not likely for now because the fire "does not meet the criteria" for further State processing at this time. (Region IX, NIFC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Area 1
A surface trough associated with the remnants of Fred is located about 450 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas. The associated shower activity is currently minimal and any development of this system should be slow to occur.  There is a low chance (less than 30%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly toward the west-northwest.
Area 2
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure centered about 1150 miles east of the Windward Islands remains poorly organized.  However, this system still has the potential to become a tropical depression over the next day or two as it moves toward the west-northwest at around 10 mph.  There is a medium chance (30 to 50%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Area 1
A small area of low pressure located about 140 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is moving northwestward at around 10 mph.  The associated shower activity had increased earlier this evening but has since diminished. There is still some opportunity for development before the system reaches cooler waters on Sunday. There is a medium chance (30 to 50%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central
No tropical cyclones are expected through this afternoon.

Western Pacific
Typhoon 15W (Choi-Wan)
No longer presents a threat to U.S. interests. At 11:00 p.m. EDT, Typhoon Choi-wan was centered about 185 miles southwest of Iwo-to Japan. Choi-wan is moving north-northwest at 9 mph. It is expected to accelerate to the northeast over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are 125 mph. Typhoon force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 210 miles from the center. Little change in intensity is expected over the next 24 hours.

This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather Service.

Recovery Efforts
Region IX CAT Planning Team will remain deployed in Guam. On-going relocation or recovery issues will be managed by the Commonwealth of Northern Marinara Islands (CNMI) Emergency Management Office. This is the final report on Typhoon Choi Wan. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, NWS Tiyan, GU, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Region IX)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, September 19, 2009:
Initial attack activity:  Light (62 new fires)
New large fires:  2
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires:  4
States affected:  WA, OR, CA, and AZ. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 21-Sep-2009 07:53:02 EDT