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National Situation Update: Saturday, September 19, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
Rain and thunderstorms are forecast to continue this weekend resulting in locally heavy downpours and more flash flooding.
Northeast
Most of the Northeast will be dry and cooler over the next few days.
Midwest
Today will be dry and mild across most of the Midwest, with the exception of showers from southern Missouri to southwest Indiana.
Temperatures will be a bit cool in Kansas and Missouri, but quite warm from the Dakotas to upper Michigan. The chance of rain will move northward into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley areas on Sunday.
West                                       
A cold front will trigger scattered showers across the Northwest on Saturday.  Meanwhile, the Rockies will see scattered thunderstorms through the weekend. (NOAA's National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

California Wildfire

Station Fire Located in the Angeles National Forest
Investigation reveals that arson caused the fire. Fire crews continue to mop up, patrol areas, and continue fire suppression repair. 160,557 acres burned; 93% contained. Estimated containment date has been moved forward to Tuesday, September 22, 2009. FMAG-2830-FM-CA approved August 28, 2009. (Region IX, NIFC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Remnants of Tropical Depression Fred
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, an area of low pressure located about 500 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas is bringing minimal rain into the region. Some development could occur in the next day, however, there is a low chance (less than 30%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves toward the west-northwest at around 10-15 mph. 

Area of Low Pressure
An area of low pressure is centered midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Further development of this system is likely to be slow as it moves westward at around 10 mph.
There is a medium chance (30-50%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Depression  Marty
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, TD Marty is located about 445 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, MX, and moving west-northwest at 9 mph. A turn toward the west expected later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph with higher gusts. Marty is expected to weaken and become a remnant low in a day or so.

Area 1
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, an area of low pressure is located about 140 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. The system is bringing rain and thunderstorms with a high chance (greater than 50%) of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The system is showing signs of organization and it could become a tropical depression within the next day or two.

Central
No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday afternoon.

Western Pacific
Typhoon 15W (Choi-Wan)
No longer presents a threat to U.S. interests. As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, September 19, 2009, the center of TY Choi-Wan was located approx  471 miles south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan, moving north-northeast at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 86 mph with gusts up to 103 mph. Maximum significant wave height is 32 feet. Typhoon Choi-Wan is expected to slowly weaken over the next few days.
Recovery Efforts
Region IX CAT Planning Team will remain deployed in Guam. On-going relocation or recovery issues will be managed by the Commonwealth of Northern Marinara Islands (CNMI) Emergency Management Office. This is the final report on Typhoon Choi Wan. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, NWS Tiyan, GU, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Region IX)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 4.1 earthquake occurred on Friday, September 18, 2009 at 7:43 p.m. EDT;
About 54 miles southeast of Sand Point, Alaska Reported depth of the quake is 9.8 miles. No damages or injuries have been reported.

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Friday, September 18, 2009: National Preparedness Level 2 Initial attack activity:  there are 70 new light fires, 1 new large fire, no large fires contained, 5 uncontained large fires, affecting the states of CA, OR, WA. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 21-Sep-2009 07:48:32 EDT