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National Situation Update: Friday, September 18, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
Tropical moisture is expected to diminish over the weekend in Arkansas, most of Texas and Louisiana.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue in eastern Texas along the Rio Grande River and from the Red River Valley into eastern Oklahoma.  The threat of flash flooding and heavy thunderstorms continues for the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast.
Northeast
A few showers and thunderstorms are forecast for southern Virginia and West Virginia.  A cold front originating in Canada will bring rain to Upstate New York and New England.
Midwest
The short, dry period in the Plains and Midwest today will be replaced by rain through the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys and Great Lakes this weekend.
West
Showers are expected to continue from Yellowstone to the southern Rockies and High Plains over the next few days.  The Pacific Northwest will see rain and a few thunderstorms on Saturday. (NOAA's National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

California Wildfire

Station Fire is located in Angeles National Forest.  It has been determined that the cause of the fire is arson.  The fire has consumed 160,557 acres, and is now 93% contained.  There are still large numbers of fire crews and apparatus involved with the ongoing perimeter control and fire mop-up operations.  Angeles National Forest remains closed.  Estimated containment date is now Tuesday, September 22, 2009.  FMAG-2830-FM-CA was approved on August 28, 2009.(Region IX, NIFC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Remnants of Tropical Depression Fred
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, a small low pressure area associated with the remnants of Fred is located about 500 miles south of Bermuda.  This system is moving westward at about 15 mph with minimal shower activity.  There is a low chance (less than 30%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.


Area of Low Pressure
A broad low pressure is located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. 
Although there are signs of organization, upper level winds are not favorable for significant development as the system moves west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.  There is a low chance (less than 30%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Marty
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Marty was located about 330 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.  The storm is moving northwest near 6 mph; a gradual turn to the west-northwest and west is expected during the next 24-48 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Marty should become a remnant low in 24-48 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday afternoon.
Western Pacific
Typhoon 15W (Choi-Wan)
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Typhoon Choi-Wan was located approximately 150 miles southwest of Iwo To, Japan,  and moving north-northwest at 10 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are 126 mph with gusts to 155mph.  Typhoon force winds extend outward to 80 miles from the center.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 210 miles from the center.  Maximum significant wave height is 36 feet.  TY Choi-Wan is expected to slightly intensify over the next 12 hours.
Recovery Efforts
Region IX IMAT with ESFs and MERS are deployed to Guam.  At the request of the Governor of the Commonwealth of Northern Marianas Islands (CNMI), a joint U.S. Navy/U.S. Coast Guard effort began Wednesday to provide relief to the Islands of Alamagan and Agrihan. The U.S. Navy provided ready to eat meals and water to Alamagan.  Evacuations have been completed.  There have been few reports of damage received, and local media is reporting very little damage on Saipan. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, NWS-Tiyan, GU, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Region IX)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Thursday, September 17, 2009:
National Preparedness Level 2
Initial attack activity: Light (78 new fires)
New large fires:  3
Large fires contained:  0
Uncontained large fires:  4
States affected:  CA, OR, ID, WY(NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Friday, 18-Sep-2009 08:02:48 EDT