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National Situation Update: Thursday, September 17, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
Tropical moisture is expected over a good part of the south through the end of the week. Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana will see rain and thunderstorm activity. The heaviest showers will move through a corridor from northeast Texas through southeast Oklahoma, northern Mississippi, Arkansas, and western Tennessee; expected rainfall could be 2-6 inches locally. The threat of flash flooding continues for portions of the area.

Northeast
Cooler temperatures remain throughout the region; Maine and northern New Hampshire have been issued freeze and frost advisories. A chance of rain exists for the central Appalachians and portions of the Mid Atlantic.

Midwest
A chance of showers exists for southern Missouri and portions of Kentucky. 

West
Scattered showers are forecast for portions of New Mexico, eastern Arizona and southern Colorado.
Eastern Washington, northern Idaho and western Montana may see showers today. (NOAA's National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

California Wildfire

Station Fire is located in Angeles National Forest. FMAG-2830-FM-CA was approved August 28, 2009.  The fire has consumed 160,557 acres, and is now 93% contained. Mount Wilson power and communication infrastructures remain threatened. There are 896 personnel assigned (-88 from September 16). Estimated containment date is September 19, 2009. Demobilization of significant resources continues. Angeles Crest Highway remains closed.(Region IX, NIFC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Remnants of Tropical Depression Fred
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with the remnants of Fred. The remnants are located about 450 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. There is a low chance (less than 30%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves toward the west at around 15 mph. 
Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Marty
As of 5:00 a.m. TS Marty was located about 295 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, MX. The storm continues to show some signs of organization as it moves northwest at 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday afternoon.

Western Pacific
Super Typhoon 15W (Choi-Wan)
As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, September 17, 2009, the center of Super TY Choi-Wan was located approx 1,024 miles from Tokyo, Japan, moving northwest at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 130 mph with gusts up to 160 mph. Typhoon force winds extend outward to 70 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to165 miles from the center. Maximum significant wave height is 41 feet. Super TY Choi-Wan is expected to slowly weaken over the next few days.
Recovery Efforts
Region IX IMAT, with ESFs & MERS, deployed to Guam.
At the request of the governor of the Commonwealth of Northern Marianas Islands (CNMI) a joint US Navy/US Coast Guard effort began Wednesday to provide relief to the islands of Alamagan & Agrihan. The U.S. Navy provided ready to eat meals and water to Alamagan. Six persons, including a newborn baby, have been evacuated from Alamagan by Navy helicopter. There have been few reports of damage received, and local media is reporting very little damage on Saipan.(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, NWS - Tiyan, GU, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Region IX)

Earthquake Activity

A 5.1 magnitude earthquake occurred at sea in the Fox Islands, Aleutian Islands approximately 161 miles SW of  Unalaska, AK at 4:50 p.m. EDT. The quake was recorded at a depth of 21.7 miles. No damages or injuries resulted, and a tsunami warning was not issued. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level is 2. National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, September 16, 2009: There were 89 new fires, 3 new large fires, 1 large fire contained, and 5 uncontained large fires affecting the states of  CA, MT, AZ, and OR. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)