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National Situation Update: Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
A slow-moving area of low pressure over Arkansas will keep tropical moisture over a good part of the South this week resulting in shower and thunderstorm activity.
The heaviest rainfall should occur over Arkansas, northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee with accumulations of 3-5 inches by the end of the week.
The South should receive between 1/2 and 2 inches of rain by Thursday with the lightest amounts occurring over the Carolinas.
With high humidity levels, temperatures should be mostly in the upper 70s to middle 80s, except for some 90s in south Texas.
Northeast
A stationary front will cause some rain in Virginia. Moisture moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico will result in more rain from Virginia north to New York and possibly western New England by Thursday.
High temperatures Thursday will remain in the 50s in southern New York and northern Pennsylvania while the rest of the region will be the 60s, with a few lower 70s possible along the Virginia coast.
Midwest
Much of the Midwest will be dry with mild to warm temperatures. Showers along southern sections of the region, mainly through the Ohio and middle Mississippi valleys, are forecast today and Thursday.
High temperatures should range from 70s in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to near 90 degrees over much of the Dakotas and High Plains.
West
A low pressure aloft will move into the central Rockies today, resulting in scattered thunderstorms over the Intermountain West; some storms may contain hail and strong winds.
A weak cold front moving into the Pacific Northwest will produce some rain over the region.
High temperatures will range from the cool 60s and 70s in the mountains, western Washington, western Oregon, and coastal California to the 80s and 90s over the remainder of the region except the deserts where the temperature could reach 100 degrees. (NOAA's National Weather Service and Various Media Sources)

Saipan Oil Spill

A 46-foot fishing boat broke free of its mooring and impacted a pier resulting in an oil spill of about 20 gallons due to severe weather effects from Super Typhoon Choi-Wan.
A waste oil holding tank located onshore has developed a leak. Approximately 300 gallons have leaked out of the tank but has been contained by the built-in containment system/area.

Heavy rains could cause the oil to top the containment area and release into open water. The U.S. Coast Guard and the Environmental Protection Agency continue to assess the situation and have developed a course of action. (Region IX SPOTREP)

California Wildfires

Station Fire - Angeles National Forest
FMAG-2830-FM-CA was approved on August 28, 2009.

The Station Fire has burned 160,557 acres and was 91% contained as of 12:01 a.m. EDT Wednesday, September 16, 2009.

984 personnel remain assigned to fight the fire. The estimated containment date is September 19. Demobilization of significant resources continues.

Angeles Crest Highway remains closed and is the primary access route for camps/residences, numerous private residences, and the Mount Wilson Communication Facility and Observatory.  (Region IX, and NIFC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Area 1
Remnants of Tropical Depression (TD) Fred
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT the remnants of Fred were located about 750 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and continue to produce showers and thunderstorms mainly to the north of the center. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for re-development and there is a low chance (less than 30%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph. 
Area 2
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located about 350 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Further development of this system is likely to be slow as it moves westward at around 10 mph. There is a low chance (less than 30%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Area 3
The weak area of low pressure along a frontal system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the southeastern Bahamas northeastward to near Bermuda. Development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.

Eastern Pacific
Area 1
The broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to show some signs of organization.  This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and it could develop into a tropical cyclone before reaching cooler waters in a couple of days. There is a high chance (greater than 50%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon.

Western Pacific
Super Typhoon Choi-Wan (15W)
As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, September 15, 2009, the center of Super TY Choi-Wan was located approximately 310 miles north-northwest of the Island of Saipan, moving west-northwest at 10 mph. Super Typhoon Choi-Wan is now moving away from the Marianas. A slight turn to the northwest with little change in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are 160 mph. Typhoon force winds extend outward to 65 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to180 miles from the center. Super TY Choi-Wan is expected to intensify slightly through tonight. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, September 15, 2009:
Initial attack activity:  Light (108 new fires)
New large fires:  3
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires:  4
States affected:  CA, ID, MT, NM and OR.(NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Wednesday, 16-Sep-2009 08:17:55 EDT