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National Situation Update: Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
A low pressure system is forecast to move into southern Arkansas today, with rain stretching from Texas and Oklahoma to Tennessee and Georgia.

Clouds and occasional rain will keep temperatures down in some areas, with highs in the middle 70s to near 80.

Northeast
The Northeast will be mild, with high temperatures into the 70s and 80s.

High temperatures in northern New England will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Midwest
A high pressure system around the Great Lakes will keep much of the Midwest sunny and seasonably warm today.

Central and southern Missouri and the lower Ohio Valley will be in the upper 70s, with clouds and a few showers.

A few isolated late thunderstorms over North Dakota and northern Minnesota are expected today, with highs in the 80s.

West
Many parts of the West will be dry today under a ridge of high pressure aloft.

A slow-moving area of low pressure aloft around the Intermountain Region will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, with a few storms containing hail and damaging wind gusts.

High temperatures will be tempered by clouds and showers, with highs ranging 60s over the mountains to the low 80s in the valleys.

The rest of the region is forecast to have high temperatures in the 80s, with 70s on the coast and the 90s to lower 100s in the deserts.  (NOAA's National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

California Wildfires

Station Fire - Angeles National Forest
FMAG-2830-FM-CA was approved on August 28, 2009.

The Station Fire has burned 160,557 acres and was 91% contained as of 11:00 p.m. EDT Monday, September 14, 2009.

Work continues around the rest of the fire to repair the damage caused by the firefighting effort as well as patrolling for hot spots.

Angeles Crest Highway remains closed and is the primary access route for 18+ camps/residences, numerous private residences, and the Mount Wilson Communication Facility and Observatory.  (Region IX, NIFC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Remnants of Tropical Depression (TD) Fred
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, September 15, 2009, the remnants of Fred are located about halfway between the northernmost Cape Verde Islands and the northern Leeward Islands.

While this system may continue to produce intermittent showers and thunderstorms as it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the next couple of days, environmental conditions are not conducive for re-development into a tropical cyclone.

There is a low chance (less than 30%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Area 1
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, September 15, 2009, a broad area of low pressure is located about 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Although associated shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished over the past few hours, environmental conditions appear favorable for development, and a Tropical Depression could form during the next day or two as this system moves west-northwest at 10-to-15-mph.

There is a high chance (greater than 50%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday afternoon.

Western Pacific
Typhoon 15W (TY Choi-Wan)
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, September 15, 2009, the center of TY Choi-Wan was located approximately 170 miles north of the Island of Saipan, moving northwest at 9 mph.  This general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours with a slight increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are 145 mph and typhoon force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center.

TY Choi-wan is expected to intensify further in the next 24 hours. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
National Fire Activity as of Monday, September 14, 2009:
Initial attack activity:  Light (163 new fires)
New large fires:  1
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires:  3
States affected:  CA and MT. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Governor of the State of Kansas submitted a revised request for a Major Disaster Declaration on September 14, 2009 as a result of Severe Storms during the period of July 8 - 14, 2009.  Specifically requested was Public Assistance for Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Franklin, Linn, McPherson, Sedgwick, and Wyandotte Counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.  The revision includes McPherson and Wyandotte Counties in his request for Public Assistance.

Last Modified: Tuesday, 15-Sep-2009 08:15:42 EDT