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National Situation Update: Monday, September 14, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South:  An upper low over north Texas will move slowly eastward and then northeastward across the South throughout the upcoming week bringing showers and thunderstorms, some producing very heavy rainfall.

The heaviest rain today should fall in Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas. One to three inches of rain are expected (but localized much higher amounts are possible) and could produce flash flooding.

Tuesday the activity should move farther east impacting Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.  Scattered thunderstorms are likely each day for Florida.

Northeast:  A cold front moves southeastward from Canada across northern New England bringing clouds and a few showers this afternoon.  High temperatures should run up to 10 degrees above average.

The cold front moves through the remainder of the Northeast with clouds and a few passing showers Tuesday.  Temperatures Tuesday afternoon range from middle 50s to lower 60s north and in the 80s south.

Midwest:  Clouds, occasional showers, and cooler temperatures are forecast across the lower Ohio Valley and middle Mississippi Valley through Tuesday.  High temperatures Monday and Tuesday should mainly be in the upper 70s to middle 80s except where the clouds and rain linger longer holding temperatures in the lower 70s.

West:  A large ridge of high pressure over the region creates high temperatures for the beginning of the week.

High temperatures into the lower 100s are predicted for the deserts of the Southwest.
An upper level low moves through northern California today and into the Intermountain West Tuesday bringing thunderstorms.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce dry lightning and could ignite wildfires.  (NOAA's National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

California Wildfires

Station Fire - Angeles National Forest
FMAG-2830-FM-CA was approved on August 28, 2009.
The Station Fire has burned 160,557 acres and was 87% contained as of 7:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, Sept 13.

Work continues around the rest of the fire to repair the damage caused by the firefighting effort as well as patrolling for hot spots.

The burn operation from the back side of Mount Wilson easterly toward Cogswell Reservoir was a complete success. Hard work during these past few days should secure this fire soon a fire behavior specialist assigned to the Station Fire, said "It's a good time to put this fire to bed!." The containment date has been pushed back to Sept. 19, 2009 due to weather caused delays in burn operations.  (Region IX, NIFC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Remnants of Tropical Depression (TD) Fred
The remnants of Fred are located about 800 miles west of the northernmost Cape Verde islands.

Associated shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished over the past few hours and upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for re-development. However this system may continue to produce intermittent shower and thunderstorm activity as it moves slowly westward over the next couple of days.

There is a less than 30 percent chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Area 1
A large area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system as it moves very little over the next day or two.

There is a less than 30 percent chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday afternoon.

Western Pacific
Typhoon 15W (Choi-Wan)
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, September 14, 2009, the center of TY Choi-Wan was located approximately 132 miles east-northeast of Saipan, moving west-northwest at 3 mph.
Typhoon Choi-Wan is expected to move in a more northwestward direction as a steering ridge weakens with the approach of two troughs from the northwest.
Maximum sustained winds are 92 mph. Typhoon force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 126 miles from the center.
Typhoon Choi-wan continues to intensify as it approaches the Northern Marianas. Heavy rain and high surf will pound local reefs. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, September 13, 2009:
Initial attack activity:  Light (163 new fires)
New large fires:  1
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires:  4
States affected:  CA, MT and OR. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 14-Sep-2009 07:53:16 EDT