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National Situation Update: Sunday, September 13, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Northeast
Today and Monday the northernmost portions of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will experience a few showers. High temperatures both days will range from near 70 in northern Maine to the low and then middle 80s south of the Maryland-Pennsylvania border. A fresh and strong Canadian high pressure area will move southward over the region Tuesday and Wednesday. A possibility of showers will move into the Virginias Tuesday and into Pennsylvania and New Jersey by midweek. Highs by Wednesday will range from the mid and upper 50s in northern Maine to the upper 60s and lower 70s across most of the Mid-Atlantic.

Midwest
Today, a possibility of showers and thunderstorms will move into the western Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri. A possibility of a few thunderstorms in northwest North Dakota on Monday as the upper-level low moves northward into Canada with showers in portions of Kansas, Missouri and Kentucky. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, showers will move into the Ohio Valley as some of the Southern moisture moves northward. The upper-level low that will move up into Canada will move southward to bring increasing showers to the Upper Midwest Wednesday and Thursday.

South
Areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms will move across much of the South through the upcoming week. An area of low pressure and a weak low-pressure trough will slowly move northward into Louisiana and then Mississippi early to mid week. Heavy, flash-flooding downpours will continue from parts of Oklahoma and Texas to Florida due to repeated thunderstorms with possibilities of a 6-to-12-inch rainfall. Later in the week thunderstorms will move over the Southeast.

West
An upper-level low from the northern Plains will move to the northern Rockies today before moving northward into Canada. Shower activity is predicted for the Rockies and high Plains. Today a Pacific system will bring some showers to portions of Oregon and California. Highs today will in the 60s and 70s for the Rockies and high Plains, 80s and lower 90s in the Great Basin and over 100 in parts of the Desert Southwest. Monday through Thursday a developing upper-level low will move from California and Oregon to the Four Corners and will produce areas of showers and thunderstorms from the Great Basin into Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico. A possibility of a weakening Pacific cold front could move into Washington causing a few showers by Thursday. 
  (NOAA's National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

California Wildfires

Station Fire - Angeles National Forest
FMAG-2830-FM-CA was approved on August 28, 2009.
The Station Fire has burned 160,557 acres and was 84% contained as of 9:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Sept 12. Firefighting efforts are concentrated on the east flank in the San Gabriel wilderness and Mount Wilson areas. Implementation of planned "burnout" strategies is successfully taking place to enhance containment and reduce the threat for the Mt Wilson Communications facility.  Since the blaze began there have been two firefighter deaths and ten people injured. Currently there is no increase in reported injuries or threatened residences or commercial facilities. There are no shelters reported open, but some roads remain closed throughout the area. Angeles Crest Highway remains closed and is primary access route for camps, numerous private residences, and the Mount Wilson Communication Facility and Observatory. Containment of the fire is expected by September 15, 2009. (Region IX, NIFC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Disturbed Weather- Gulf of Mexico
At 2:00a.m. EDT, a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf Mexico is associated with a surface front and an upper-level trough. This low is moving slowly northeastward and producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms along much of the northern gulf coast. Environmental conditions are not favorable for tropical cyclone development and there is a less than 30 percent of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. However, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rain to portions of the south-central and southeastern United States over the next few days.
Tropical Wave- Cape Verde Islands
At 2:00a.m. EDT, An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde islands is producing scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system will be slow to occur as it moves slowly west-northwestward over the next couple of days. There is a less than 30 percent of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific
As of 12:00 a.m. EDT, September 13, 2009, the center of TS Choi-Wan was located approximately 360 miles east-northeast of the Island of Guam, moving west-northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 55 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 100 miles from the center in the southeast semi-circle and 60 miles from the center in the northwest semi-circle. Choi-wan is expected to continue intensifying over the next 24 hours. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

At 4:06 p.m. EDT, September 12, 2009, a magnitude 6.4 earthquake occurred approximately 65 miles west of Caracas, Venezuela (1,310 miles southeast of Miami, FL) at a depth of 6.2 miles.  No reports of injuries, damage or tsunami. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, September 12, 2009:
Initial attack activity:  Light (95 new fires)
New large fires:  0
Large fires contained:  0
Uncontained large fires:  4
States affected:  CA and MT. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 14-Sep-2009 07:48:35 EDT