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National Situation Update: Saturday, September 12, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Northeast
Wind and rain will slowly dissipate on the New Jersey coast. By Sunday, some partial clearing is likely over many areas. Coastal areas should see a gradual dissipation of any concerns related to wave and beach issues this weekend as the low pressure shifts toward the east.

Midwest
By Saturday the area will see decreasing rain and thunderstorms. Showers will continue over parts of the High Plains and northward into Kansas and Missouri. 

South
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for portions of the South, except for parts of eastern Tennessee, eastern Georgia, and the Carolinas. Rainfall across the south-central states may be heavy at times, including the drought area over southern Texas. A risk of flash flooding exists for Texas and Louisiana early next week.

West
Showers and thundershowers will be mostly limited to the High Plains. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average west of the Rockies and as much as 5 to 20 degrees below average across most of Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico.
Red Flag Warnings are in effect until late Saturday for the central Oregon Cascades due to low humidity and strong winds.  (NOAA's National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

California Wildfires

Station Fire - Angeles National Forest
FMAG-2830-FM-CA was approved on August 28, 2009.
The Station Fire has burned 160,557 acres and was 81% contained as of 10:00 p.m. EDT Friday, Sept 11. Firefighting efforts are concentrated on the east flank in the San Gabriel wilderness and Mount Wilson areas. Implementation of planned "burnout" strategies is successfully taking place to enhance containment and reduce the threat for the Mt Wilson Communications facility.  Since the blaze began there have been two firefighter deaths and ten people injured. Currently there is no increase in reported injuries or threatened residences or commercial facilities. There are no shelters reported open, but some roads remain closed throughout the area. Containment of the fire is expected by September 15, 2009. (Region IX, NIFC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical Storm Fred
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located about 645 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Fred is stagnant but expected to slowly move north then north-northwest over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected over the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

Disturbed Weather- Gulf of Mexico
Heavy rain and thunderstorms is forecast over much of  the Gulf of Mexico. There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The system will move slowly northward continuing the locally heavy rain in the northern Gulf area.

Tropical Wave- Cape Verde Islands
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a tropical wave located halfway between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. There is a potential for some development as the system moves west at 10-15 mph over the next few days.

Eastern Pacific
Remnant Linda
At 11:00 p.m. EDT, Linda was located about 1,512 miles east of Hawaii. Linda is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph. and is expected to do so over the next couple of days as it weakens.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday afternoon.

Western Pacific
A special weather advisory from NWS-Tiyan Guam
was issued regarding Tropical Depression 15W. As of 5:30 a.m. EDT, TD15W is moving westward at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph and is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Storm by tomorrow and a Hurricane by Monday.
(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Preparedness Level is 2 for wildfire activity. As of Friday, September 11, 2009 there were 102 new fires, no new large fires, and four uncontained large fires affecting the states of CA, MT, OR, and FL. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)