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National Situation Update: Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West:
The region will be dry except for a few mountain thunderstorms, especially over parts of Colorado and New Mexico.
Midwest:
The upper level low pressure over the Ohio Valley is moving slowly northeast.  Showers and thunderstorms are forecast as far south as Tennessee. Accumulations of up to two inches are possible.  A frontal system will move across the Dakotas to western Minnesota by tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along the front with a few severe thunderstorms possible from Minnesota to Colorado.
South:
An area of low pressure situated just offshore of Cape Lookout, North Carolina will move very slowly northward across the Outer Banks during the next 36 to 48 hours. Coastal areas of North Carolina could receive a total of four or more inches of rain by tonight.  The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this system. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. There is a low chance (less than 30 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.  To the north of this surface low, a moist easterly flow will deliver  rain showers to the Del-Ma-VA peninsula and Chesapeake Bay.  The Gulf Coast region and extreme southern Texas will see scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Northeast:
The upper level low moving out of the Ohio Valley will spread showers and thunderstorms over western New York, western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and southwestern Virginia.  Precipitation from the low pressure system moving up the East Coast will spread from Delaware Bay, Cape May
and Long Island to Cape Cod by early this evening.  Rainfall totals may reach two to five inches in southeastern Virginia, eastern Maryland and southern Delaware and one to three inches in southern New Jersey by tonight.  Precipitation and gusty winds will continue for the next few days due to the slow movement of the low. (NOAA's National Weather Service and Various Media sources)

Preparing for the Second Wave: lessons from current outbreaks Pandemic (H1N1) 2009

The World Health Organization (WHO) is advising countries in the northern hemisphere to prepare for a second wave of pandemic spread of H1N1, now the dominant influenza strain in most parts of the world.  The pandemic will persist in the coming months as the virus continues to move through susceptible populations.  Studies have detected no signs that the virus has mutated to a more virulent or lethal form; the overwhelming majority of patients continue to experience mild illness.  Although the virus can cause very severe and fatal illness, even in young and healthy people, the number of such cases remains small.  If the current pattern of usually mild illness continues, the impact of the pandemic during the second wave could worsen as larger numbers of people become infected.  During the winter season in the southern hemisphere, several countries have concluded that the need for intensive care is the greatest burden on health services.  Some cities in these countries reported that nearly 15% of hospitalized cases required intensive care.
     One important difference in the H1N1 infection is age, affecting adults under the age of 50.  This group has experienced more severe and fatal cases compared to seasonal influenza where around 90% of severe and fatal cases occur in people 65 and older.
     Perhaps most significant is that clinicians from around the world are reporting a very severe form of the disease in young and otherwise healthy people, a phenomenon rarely seen during seasonal influenza infections.  In these patients, the virus directly infects the lung, causing severe respiratory failure.  Data continue to show that medical conditions such as respiratory disease, asthma, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and immunosuppressants increase the risk of severe and fatal illness.  According the Centers for Disease Control, as of 2006 (the most current statistics available) roughly 300 million people were diagnosed with diabetes and asthma.  If this section of the population becomes infected with the H1N1, hospital emergency rooms and intensive care units could become quickly overwhelmed.  When anticipating the impact of the pandemic as more people become infected, health officials need to be aware that many of these predisposing conditions have become much more widespread in recent decades, thus increasing the pool of vulnerable people.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_second_wave_20090828/en/index.html
(Excerpted from: www.who.int article and statistics from CDC)

Region IX Wildfires

California Wildfire:
Station Fire - 1.5 mi north of Los Angeles River Ranger District (Angeles National Forest)
FMAG-2830-FM-CA approved August 28, 2009
There are 157,220 acres burned; the fire is 56% contained as of  9:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Sept 7
There have been 2 firefighter deaths and 10 injuries.  78 residences, 2 commercial properties, 2 communications sites and 86 outbuildings have been destroyed.  13 residences, 1 commercial and 28 out buildings damaged.  There are 5,000 residences, 200 commercial structures and 2,000 outbuildings threatened.  One shelter has opened with five occupants.  The LA County EOC has been deactivated.  Current personnel assigned:  4,623.  Estimated containment date is September 15, 2009.  (Region IX, NIFC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical Storm Fred
At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located about 285
miles southwest of the southern most Cape Verde Islands.  Fred is moving toward the west near 15 mph.  A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.  Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and Fred could become a hurricane over the next couple of days.

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Linda
At 500 am EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Linda was located about 1,320 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.  Linda is moving toward the west near 8 mph.  A turn toward the west-northwest and then the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible over the next day or two.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday evening.

Western Pacific
No systems affecting U.S. Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity as of Monday, September 07, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (124 new fires)
New large fires:  1
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires:  9
States affected:  CA, MT, NM, OR, UT and WA  (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Tuesday, 08-Sep-2009 08:41:55 EDT