• Emergency Managers and Personnel
• Situation Reports
• National Incident Management System
• Grants & Assistance Programs
• Training
• Contacts
• Planning
• Best Practices

National Situation Update: Sunday, September 6, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West:
A cold front will produce widespread precipitation from northern California to Washington. Higher elevations in the Washington Cascades may see snow.  An upper level disturbance will produce isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in the Rockies. The Four Corners region may experience localized flash flooding.  Gusty winds and low humidity in  Nevada and Utah may warrant Red Flag Warnings this afternoon.  High temperatures in eastern Montana will be near record highs - from the upper 90s to near 100.  In Southern California, winds are forecast to be westerly, bringing cooler air and higher humidity which will assist fire fighting efforts.
Midwest:
A slow moving upper level disturbance will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.
South:
An upper-level trough will produce isolated-to-widely-scattered thunderstorms over much of the region.
Northeast:
Under a high pressure system most of the region will be dry and cool, except for isolated thunderstorms along the Appalachians.  High temperatures will range from the mid 60s in eastern New England to the lower 80s in the Mid-Atlantic.  Showers and a few thunderstorms will move into western parts of the region on Labor Day. (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Wildland Fire Outlook – September 2009 through December 2009

During September, above normal significant fire potential is expected across portions of California and Texas.  Below normal significant fire potential is expected across portions of the Great Basin, Rocky Mountain, Southern, Eastern, and Southwest Areas for September.  
 
For October through December, significant fire potential is forecast to increase or persist across parts of northern California, Texas, and the Appalachian Mountains. The primary factors influencing fire potential this outlook period are:  Prolonged drought, hot and dry summer weather, and climate forecasts for a continuation of these factors into early fall point towards above normal significant fire potential for portions of California and Texas. 

Abundant rainfall during August east of the Mississippi River and along the northeast coastal states is expected to limit fire activity during September, however significant fire potential will likely increase in the Appalachians in October and November during leaf drop due to lingering drought.  Abnormally wet weather and moist fuel conditions is expected to limit fire activity to below normal levels in portions of central and eastern Idaho, northwest and southern Wyoming, and central Colorado (above 8000 feet).

Long term drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen over portions of California, Nevada, Arizona, Montana and the Pacific Northwest.  (Excerpted from: www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov)

Region IX Wildfires

California Wildfires:

Station Fire - 1.5 mi north of Los Angeles River Ranger District (Angeles National Forest)
FMAG-2830-FM-CA approved August 28, 2009 154,655 acres burned; (242 square miles).  49% contained as of 7:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, September 5.  There are 2 (firefighters) deaths and 9 injuries.  Property destroyed: 76 residences, 2 commercial properties, 86 outbuildings.  Property damaged:  13 residences and 18 outbuildings.  2 shelters are opened with a population of 10.  The LA County EOC has been deactivated.  No mandatory evacuations are in effect.  The utility companies have begun large scale pole replacement as up to 1,000 poles have been damaged/destroyed.  Estimated containment date is September 15, 2009 (Region IX, NIFC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Invest 95
The area of low pressure located about 500 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands is moving north-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  This system continues to show some signs of organization but upper-level winds are forecast to become highly unfavorable for any significant development. There is a low chance (less than 30 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Invest 96
The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 975 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to show signs of organization. This system has the potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  There is a medium chance (30 to 50 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Monday afternoon

Western Pacific
No systems affecting U.S. Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

At 11:20 p.m. EDT, September 6, 2009 a magnitude 4.0 earthquake occurred 5 miles west of Templeton, California (137 miles south-southeast of San Jose, California) at a depth of 3.1 miles.  No reports of damage, injuries or tsunami. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, September 5, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (139 new fires)
New large fires:  4
Large fires contained:  3
Uncontained large fires:  9
States affected:  CA, CO,  MT,  AZ,  NM,  HI, OR, UT, WA and WY  (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)