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National Situation Update: Friday, September 4, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West
Areas from the Four Corners to the northern Rockies will see scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Over the weekend the Pacific Northwest will experience some rain with temperatures below average for early September.

Along coastal California winds will turn onshore, bringing cooler air and higher humidity to the some of the intense fire areas this weekend.

South
Thunderstorms are expected from eastern Kansas and Missouri southward into parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

Parts of Florida and eastern North Carolina will continue to see more rain.

Midwest
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Kansas to the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes through Monday, September 7.

Northeast
Coastal New England will be cool, with highs in the upper 60s to near 70.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Region VIII Utah Wildfire

Mill Flat Fire (FEMA-2831-FM-UT)
This fire started on July 25, 2009 as a result of lightning. Located near the town of New Harmony, Washington County, Utah, the fire has burned 12,607 acres and is 33% contained. No additional residences (3) or outbuildings (8) have been destroyed. 550 residences and 58 commercial buildings are threatened. Residents have been allowed to return to their homes; however, a one-hour alert for emergency evacuation is still in-place.

Region IX Wildfires

California Wildfires:
The Governor proclaimed a State of Emergency for Los Angeles, Monterey, Placer and Mariposa counties; local Proclamation of Emergency for the Big Meadow Fire.
Big Meadow Fire: 
The fire has burned over 7,240 acres, and is 70% contained. Homes, commercial buildings, and outbuildings remain threatened. The evacuation order for Foresta is expected to be lifted today. Estimated containment date is September 10. 
Station Fire: (FMAG-2830-FM-CA)
The fire has now burned over 147,418 acres, and is 38% contained as of 6 p.m. PDT Thursday. No additional deaths or injuries have been reported. Residences destroyed remain at 64 since yesterday, and 9 residences damaged. Additional homes, commercial structures and outbuildings remain threatened, including the Mt Wilson communications facility.  Some Canyon locations are open to residents only; however, residential evacuations have been lifted except for Little Tujunga from Bear Divide to the Wildlife Station.
3 shelters remain open with a population 33. Estimated containment date is September 15.  An FMAG was approved on August 28. (Region IX, NIFC)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

An FMAG (FEMA-2837-FM-MT) was approved today at 1:59 a.m. EDT for the Eagle Mount Fire in Columbus, Montana, Stillwater County. The fire started on September 3, 2009 and has burned 1,220 acres. Fire is 0% contained.  The town of Columbus, MT, population 2,000, is threatened. Mandatory evacuations are in effect for 250 - 300 individuals.  The Fire is less than 2 miles from subdivisions. 100 primary residences are threatened, along with other facilities such as transmission lines, major gas line, rail line and secondary roads. I-90 is closed affecting interstate commerce. The Fire could double or triple in size by tomorrow. Dozers, hand crew teams and strike crew teams have been ordered.(FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic:
Tropical Wave Activity
A tropical wave is centered about 175 miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. This system has changed little in organization during the past several hours, but still has the potential for slow development over the next couple of days, as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Erika - Remnant Low
As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, the center of the remnant low associated with former Tropical Depression Erika was located about 115 miles south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico  The low is moving toward the west near 7 mph.  A gradual turn to the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph, with higher gusts in a few squalls. The low is forecast to dissipate in a day or so.

The remnants of Erika are expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. And British Virgin Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. National Hurricane Center has issued the last public advisory on this system unless regeneration occurs.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Activity
A broad low pressure area located about 725 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is forecast to become more conducive for development during the next day or two as the system moves to the west-northwest at about 10 mph.  There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Tropical Depression Jimena
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Jimena was located about 45 miles east of Santa Rosalia Mexico. Jimena is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph. Jimena is expected to turn toward the southwest later today and continue through Saturday.  On the forecast track, Jimena is expected to move over the Baja California peninsula later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Jimena could degenerate into a remnant low later today or Saturday.
 
Jimena is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over portions of western Mexico and 1 to 2 inches over the central portion of the Baja Peninsula during the next day or so. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of up to 30 inches are possible.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday evening.

Western Pacific                                
No activity.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, September 3, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (119 new fires)
New large fires:  1
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires:  14
States affected:  CA, HI, OR, WA, UT, AZ, TX and CO (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Friday, 04-Sep-2009 07:57:38 EDT