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National Situation Update: Thursday, September 3, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West
Scattered storms are forecast over parts of the Four Corners' States today. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for most of the day in Washington State due to strong winds and low relative humidity. Temperatures will remain above average in Southern California. Highs in Los Angeles will be in the low 90s today. Much cooler temperatures will arrive this weekend, aiding fire fighting efforts.

South
The Southeast coast and parts of Florida can expect rain and thunderstorms today.
Farther to the west, scattered showers and storms are expected over the Tennessee Valley, Arkansas, Oklahoma and northern and eastern parts of Texas.

Midwest
Some rain is anticipated over portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and western Iowa throughout the day.

Northeast
Thursday will be dry except for some light rain in extreme southeast Virginia and the southern Del-Mar-Va Peninsula. (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Region VIII Utah Wildfire

Mill Flat Fire (FEMA-2831-FM-UT)
This fire started on July 25, 2009 as a result of lightning. Located near New Harmony, Washington County, Utah., the fire has burned 11,180 acres and is 10% contained. 3 residences and 8 outbuildings destroyed. 550 residences and 58 commercial buildings are threatened. A mandatory evacuation is in effect for 150 residents. 1 shelter opened; 0 occupants.

Region IX Wildfires

Arizona Wildfires:
Water Wheel Fire (FEMA-2835-FM-AZ)
The fire has burned over 733 acres burned, and is 90% contained. One injury was reported.  There are no threats to residences, commercial properties and outbuildings at this time. Evacuations were lifted; all evacuation centers closed; some road closures remain in effect. Estimated containment date is September 5. An FMAG was approved August 31.
California Wildfires:
The Governor has proclaimed a State of Emergency for Los Angeles, Monterey, Placer and Mariposa counties; local Proclamation of Emergency for Big Meadow Fire.
Big Meadow Fire: 
The fire has burned over 6,283 acres, and is 60% contained. Five firefighters have been reported injured.  50 residences, 1 commercial, 25 outbuildings remain threatened. Evacuation order for El Portal has been lifted; however the evacuations for Foresta are still in effect. Estimated containment date is September 10. 
Oak Glen III Fire: (FMAG -2833-FM-CA)
The fire has now burned over 1,159 acres burned and is 75% contained. All mandatory evacuations have been lifted. Three injuries were reported. Shelters closed. 2,000 residents and 75 commercial buildings remain threatened.  Estimated containment date is September 7.  An FMAG was approved August 30.
Station Fire: (FMAG-2830-FM-CA)
The fire has burned over 140,150 acres, and is now 28% contained. There have been two firefighter deaths reported and six civilian injuries. As of Wednesday evening, 64 residences have been destroyed along with 3 commercial buildings, and 27 outbuildings. 9 residences and 3 outbuildings have been damaged.
10,000 residences, 500 commercial and 2,000 outbuildings remain threatened. All residential evacuations have been lifted.  Some Canyon locations are opened to residents only; and the Dukmejian Wilderness Park and Angeles National Forest remain closed. 5 shelters remain open with a population 83. Estimated containment date is September 15.  An FMAG was approved on August 28.(Region IX, NIFC)
Hawaii Wildfires:
Kaunakakai Fire:  (FMAG-2831-FM-HI)
The fire remains at about 8,000 acres burned and is now 80% contained, according to local media reports. Six firefighters were reported injured. One outbuilding was destroyed. National Guard and firefighters are conducting air operations to bring the fire under control. An FMAG was approved August 30.  (Region IX, NIFC)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic:
Tropical Wave Activity
Thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the Cape Verde Islands have decreased. Development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves to the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of poorly-organized Tropical Storm Erika was estimated to be about 260 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Erika has been moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next day or two with some increase in speed. On the forecast track, the weather associated with Erika will continue to move through the Leeward Islands this morning and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is likely during the next couple of days.

Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles to the east of the center.

Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Puerto Rico during the next couple of days, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

Eastern Pacific
Hurricane
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was located over the Baja California Peninsula about 30 miles west-northwest of Santa Rosalia, Mexico. Jimena is moving toward the north near 7 mph. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected later today, with a turn toward the southwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Jimena will move over the east coast of the central Baja California peninsula today and then move inland over Baja California by tonight.

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for parts of Baja California Peninsula and northwest mainland Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected during the next day or two. Jimena is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles.

Jimena is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the central portions of the Baja Peninsula and portions of western Mexico during the next 24 to 48 hours, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.

Higher than normal tide levels with large and dangerous battering waves along portions of the coast of the Baja Peninsula will gradually subside during the next day or so.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday, September 4, 2009.

Western Pacific                                
No activity.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, September 2, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (175 new fires)
New large fires:  1
Large fires contained:  2
Uncontained large fires:  15
States affected:  CA, HI, OR, UT, AZ, TX and CO(NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Governor of Texas has requested an emergency declaration for the State of Texas as a result of wildfires beginning on July 15, 2009, and continuing.  The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance Category B, including direct Federal assistance, for 215 counties. (FEMA HQ)