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National Situation Update: Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West
Lower temperatures and higher humidity is expected to improve conditions for the Southern California wild fire for the next couple of days. Temperatures near the fires should be in the middle 90s to near 100 and in the 90s on Thursday, September 3. Humidity levels continue to rise this week in the affected areas. These two slight improvements will also help prevent new fires and allow fire fighters the ability to increase containment. Rain is anticipated for Arizona and New Mexico by the end of the week.

South
Some rain and thunderstorms are forecast for the Southeast coast, Florida and the Gulf Coast states today and Thursday. Thunderstorms are expected in central Mississippi and central Alabama; some of the stronger storms may contain hail and damaging winds.

Midwest
The Plains are forecast for scattered thunderstorms today and Thursday; some thunderstorms may produce strong winds and hail. (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Cool weather offers hope in California fire battle

Cool weather allowed firefighters to make progress against a deadly wildfire in Los Angeles, CA.  The Governor told reporters Tuesday that a total of eight major fires were burning. As well as the two firefighters who died, 14 had been injured.  A rise in humidity and a drop in temperatures saw firefighters increase containment lines from 5% percent to 22%, and for the first time evacuation orders in several areas were lifted.   An estimated 10,000 people have been evacuated since the fire erupted last Wednesday and flames continue to besiege a critical telecommunications facility as well as a historic hilltop observatory.  The Governor had urged residents who received an evacuation order to flee immediately.

More than 3,600 firefighters are battling the fire in the Angeles National Forest. The fire threatened communications antennas for numerous television and radio stations, cell phone providers and law enforcement agencies on Mount Wilson in the San Gabriel Mountains.  Firefighters were creating firewalls and set lines of retardant aimed at protecting the Mount Wilson Observatory. An open source reporting Tuesday evening showed clouds of smoke shrouding the observatory dome.  Fire containment estimated by September 15. 

California is frequently hit by wildfires due to its dry climate, winds, and recent housing booms that have seen home construction spread rapidly into rural and densely forested areas.  In 2007, the state suffered some of the worst wildfires devastation in its history as eight people were left dead, 2,000 homes destroyed, 640,000 people displaced, and a billion dollars of damage occurred. (LOS ANGELES AFP, Media Sources)

Region VIII Utah Wildfire

Mill Flat Fire (FEMA-2831-FM-UT)
The Mill Flat Fire is located near New Harmony, Washington County, Utah and was started on July 25, as a result of lightning. The fire has burned 11,180 acres and is 10% contained. Three residences and eight outbuildings have been destroyed. Decreasing temperatures and higher relative humidity are expected to cause a lower level of fire activity. This will help crews work closer to the fire, construct line and make significant progress in line construction.

Region IX Wildfires

Arizona Wildfires:
Water Wheel Fire (FEMA-2835-FM-AZ)
The Water Wheel Fire is located 7 miles northeast of Payson in Gila County, Arizona. The fire has burned 773 acres with 45% containment. The evacuation order for Whispering Pines has been lifted; however, area closure still in place. Some road closures are in effect. The estimated containment date is September 5.
California Wildfires:
The Governor has proclaimed a State of Emergency for Los Angeles, Monterey, Placer and Mariposa Counties; local Proclamation of Emergency for Big Meadow Fire.
Big Meadow Fire: 
The Big Meadow Fire is located two miles east of El Portal. The fire has burned 5,275 acres and is 55% contained. Three firefighters have been injured. The estimated date of containment is September 10.
Oak Glen III Fire: (FMAG -2833-FM-CA)
The Oak Glen III Fire is located south of Oak Glen and Potato Canyon in San Bernardino County. The fire started August 30, 2009 and has burned 1,012 acres and is 60% contained. Mandatory evacuations are in effect for the community of Oak Glenn.
Station Fire: (FMAG-2830-FM-CA)
The Station Fire is located in Los Angles River Ranger District, Angeles National Forest. The fire has burned 127,513 acres and is 22% contained. There are two fatalities and three injuries associated with this fire. Angeles Crest Highway remains closed and is the Mount Wilson Communication Facility and Observatory. An estimated 10,000 people have been evacuated since the fire erupted last Wednesday. Multiple evacuation centers have been established. The Mount Wilson Communications is directly threatened. This facility is a major communications hub for all of Southern California.
Hawaii Wildfires:
Kaunakakai Fire:  (FMAG-2831-FM-HI)
The Kaunakakai Fire is located 1 mile north of Kaunakakai Town, Maui County, Island of Molokai, Hawaii. The fire has burned 7,800 acres and is 45% contained. The fire is threatening 500 residences, and 90 businesses. One injury has been reported. One outbuilding has been destroyed.(Region IX, NIFC)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FEMA-2836-FM-CA was approved September 1, for the Pendleton Fire in Yucaipa, San Bernardino County, CA. The fire has burned over 860 acres with 70% containment. Approximately 400 residences have been threatened and the Wildwood Canyon has evacuated.   (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic:
Tropical Wave Activity
Thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the Cape Verde Islands have decreased. Development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves to the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Erika
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located about 280 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Erika has been moving generally westward near 5 mph. A west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next day or two. On this track, the center of Erika is expected to pass near or over the northern Leeward Islands during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Leeward Islands. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles mainly to the north and east of the center.
Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the northern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. Puerto Rico and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands however are in the cone of uncertainty. Local Statement from the NWS office in San Juan, Puerto Rico states there are no tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect for the area, however Puerto Rico and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands should remain alert as they are in the cone of uncertainty.

Eastern Pacific
Hurricane Jimena
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Jimena was located about 65 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. Jimena is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph, and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours.  On the forecast track, the core of Jimena will be just offshore the West Coast of the southern Baja California peninsula today, and be near or over the central Baja California peninsula on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 105 mph, with higher gusts.  Jimena is a Category Two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours but Jimena is still forecast to be a hurricane when it moves inland. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula south of Agua Blanca on the West Coast and south of La Paz on the East Coast.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Baja California peninsula from Agua Blanca northward to Punta Abreojos on the West Coast and from La Paz northward to Mulege on the East Coast.

Jimena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over the southern half of the Baja Peninsula and portions of western Mexico for the next 48 hours.

Remnant Low of Kevin
The center of the remnant low of Kevin was located about 840 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph. Dissipation of the low is expected in a few days. This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

Central Pacific
No activity.

Western Pacific                                
No activity. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, September 1, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (143 new fires)
New large fires:  5
Large fires contained:  2
Uncontained large fires:  17
States affected:  AZ, CA, CO, OR, TX, UT, & WA (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President approved a major disaster declaration for the state of New York (FEMA-1857-DR-NY) as a result of severe storms and flooding occurring August 8-10, 2009.  Specifically, three counties are eligible for Public Assistance and Hazard Mitigation statewide.  Jaime E. Forero has been appointed Federal Coordinating Officer.(FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Wednesday, 02-Sep-2009 07:52:34 EDT