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National Situation Update: Saturday, August 29, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West:
An upper level low will move into the Pacific Northwest this weekend drifting southeastward into the Rockies by Monday. This system will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. The upper level low will weaken the ridge over the Great Basin and allow temperatures over the Desert Southwest to lessen a bit to between 105 and 120.
Midwest:
Under high pressure much of the region will be dry and unseasonably cool. Steady rain is expected near the U.S. Canadian border in the vicinity of the Great Lakes with light scattered showers to the south as the upper trough sweeps across the region.
South:
A cold front will move slowly across the region this weekend. Expect a broad swath of showers and thunderstorms from the Carolinas to the Gulf Coast.  Highs temperatures will range from near 80 in northern Tennessee to around 100 in southern Texas.
Northeast:
The region will be wet and windy with large low pressure system over the Great Lakes, an upper level trough over the region and Tropical Storm Danny forecast to move along the coast today. With the remnants of Danny approaching up from the south expect a tightening pressure gradient and strengthening east to southeast winds over New England.  Gale warnings will be in effect for coastal areas later today.
Much of the rest of the Northeast will experience periods of heavy rain. Rainfall amounts of two to four inches are forecast and localized flooding is expected. Highs temperatures will range from the upper 50s in northern Maine to the 80s in Virginia. (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG 2829-FM-OR was approved for the Microwave Fire, located near Mosier, Oregon on the border of Hood River and Wasco counties in the Columbia River Gorge area. The fire has burned over 640 acres and is 0% contained. A mandatory evacuation of the community of Mosier (approximately 450 people) is in place. The fire is approximately ½-1/4 miles from structures and the wind is blowing fire towards the community.

FMAG 2830-FM-CA was approved for the Station Fire near Alta Dena and La Canada (Los Angeles County), California. The fire has burned over 5,500 acres and is 5% contained. Mandatory evacuations are in place for 3,000 residents and 1,800 residences are threatened. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical Depression Danny
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the remnants of Danny were located about 80 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and about 540 miles south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts. Danny is rapidly becoming absorbed by an extratropical low over North Carolina. The extratropical low is forecast to move rapidly toward the north-northeast and then northeast near 30 to 35 mph during the next day or so. Large swells and dangerous rip currents are still expected along the East Coast. There will be no further advisories on this system from the National Hurricane Center
Invest 94
A broad area of low pressure centered halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although this system has changed little during the past several hours conditions appear favorable for gradual development over the next couple of days as it moves westward at around 15 mph. There is a medium chance (30 to 50 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Jimena
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of newly-formed Tropical Storm Jimena was about 250 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico and about 365 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Jimena is moving toward the west near 12 mph. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours with some decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and Jimena could become a hurricane in the next day or two. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.

Invest 95
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1,050 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California have become slightly better organized during the past few hours. Environmental conditions appear favorable for this system to develop into a tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a high chance (greater than 50 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
 
Central Pacific
Tropical Depression Two-C
At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Two-C was about 585 miles west of Johnston Island and about 1,395 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph. This general motion is forecast to continue during the next couple of days with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest expected tonight and Sunday. On this track Two-C is expected to cross the international dateline into the northwestern Pacific this afternoon or tonight.  Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Slow intensification is possible during the next couple of days and the depression could become a tropical storm on later today.
Remnant Low
An area of low pressure, formerly tropical cyclone Hilda, was located about 560 miles south of Kauai and is moving west near 15 mph. Tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours is not likely to occur.

Western Pacific  
No activity affecting US territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On August 28, 2009, at 4:54 a.m. EDT, a magnitude 4.7 earthquake occurred approximately 74 miles south-southwest of Unalaska, AK and approximately 864 miles southwest of Anchorage, AK at a depth of 33 miles.  There were no reports of injuries, damage or tsunami being generated. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity as of Friday, August 28, 2009:

  • Initial attack activity: Light (115 new fires)
  • New large fires:  10
  • Large fires contained:  1
  • Uncontained large fires:  12
  • States affected:  CA, OR, WA, ID, UT, MT, & TX (NIFC)

Region IX, California Wildfires
Station Fire (FEMA-2830-FM-CA)
The Station Fire is located 4 miles north of La Canada in Los Angeles County. The fire has burned 5,500 acres and is 5% contained. 1,800 residences and 27 commercial buildings are threatened. Mandatory evacuations are in place for 3,000 residences. An ARC shelter has been established at La Canada High School with a population of 20. No power grid threats at this time
PV Fire (FEMA-2828-FM-CA)
The PV Fire is located in Rancho Palos Verdes, California. The fire has burned 230 acres and is 90% contained. Mandatory evacuations were lifted
Gloria Fire
The Gloria fire is a wildland fire burning northeast of Soledad in San Benito County, California. The fire has burned 6,000 acres and is 15% contained. Mandatory evacuations continue. 100 residences and 50 commercial buildings are threatened. One residence has been destroyed and one injury has been reported  (Cal Fire)

Region X, Oregon Wildfire
Microwave Fire (FEMA-2829-FM-OR)
The Microwave Fire is located 3 miles west of Mosier, on the border of Hood River/Wasco Counties in the Columbia River Gorge area. The fire is affecting multiple jurisdictions and threatens assets including primary residences, multiple state parks and recreation areas. The fire has burned 640 acres and is  0% contained. Mandatory evacuations are in place for the community of Mosier (450 people). The fire is ½-1/4 miles from structures and the wind is blowing fire towards the community (Region X DSAR)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 31-Aug-2009 07:57:50 EDT