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National Situation Update: Thursday, August 27, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Midwest
Storms with locally heavy rain are forecast from the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley westward to the mid/upper-Mississippi Valley due to a weak cold front moving through the region.  A separate front will move into the Upper Midwest today and produce scattered storms from eastern North Dakota to northern Minnesota.  Temperatures will range from the 60s and 70s in the upper-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes to the 80s in the mid- Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.  A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for southeastern Iowa until 8:45 a.m. CDT. 
South
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the Southeast due to a dry upper low.  A separate upper disturbance will produce scattered storms in portions of Oklahoma, Texas and the lower-Mississippi Valley.  Highs in the 80s and low 90s will be common throughout the region.
West
An upper ridge building across the West will produce above average temperatures from the Northwest to the Southwest.  Highs in the 80s and 90s will be common across the Northwest and temperatures in the Desert Southwest will rise well into the 100s.  An Excessive Heat Warning will be in effect from 10:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. PDT today for the California Deserts and southwestern Arizona.  A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for southwest and south-central California until 9:00 p.m. PDT Friday. 
Northeast
A cold front lingering in the Mid-Atlantic will produce showers and thunderstorms from southern Pennsylvania to the Virginias.  Highs in the 60s and 70s will be common in New England and Upstate New York; from southern New Jersey to the Virginias highs will be in the 80s.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical Storm Danny
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Danny was located about 370 miles east-northeast of Nassau and about 575 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Danny is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph; this general motion is expected to continue through today and turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed by Friday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days.
Area 1
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, a tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.  There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. 

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Depression Ignacio
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression  Ignacio was located about 1,060 miles west of the southern tip of Baja, California.  Ignacio is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph; this general motion is expected to continue today.  Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  Ignacio is forecast to become a remnant low later today.
Area 1
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, a large area of disturbed weather is centered about 950 miles south of the southern tip of Baja, California.  Conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next couple of days as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  There is a medium chance, 30 to 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Area 2
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, an area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms located just in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a westward moving tropical wave.  There are no signs of development at this time and there is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. 


Central Pacific
Tropical Depression Hilda
At 5:00 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Hilda was located about 450 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii and about 635 miles southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph and is expected to gradually turn to the northeast over the next 48 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  Hilda is forecast to gradually weaken over the next 48 hours.
Area 1
At 4:00 a.m. EDT, an area of disturbed weather about 1,050 miles southwest of Kauai was moving west near 10 mph.  The thunderstorms remain poorly organized and there is a slight chance of tropical cyclone development in this area over the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific  
No activity affecting US territories.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2 National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, August 26, 2009:

  • Initial attack activity: Light (83 new fires)
  • New large fires:  1
  • Large fires contained:  1
  • Uncontained large fires:  4
  • States affected:  AZ, CA, & WA(NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 27-Aug-2009 08:03:15 EDT