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National Situation Update: Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Northeast
A cold front will approach the interior portion of the region today; isolated to widely-scattered storms are expected from northern New England southwestward to Upstate New York and northern.  Pennsylvania.  Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s from Portland, Maine and Boston, Massachusetts to New York City and Washington, D.C.
West
Much of the West will see sunny skies today.  The only exception will be along the corridor from southeast Wyoming to Colorado and New Mexico, which may be affected by some showers or storms.
Average temperatures will remain, with a slight increase beginning Thursday.
South
Some isolated storms may develop in southern portions of the Gulf States.  Scattered showers and storms are forecast near the Southeast coast and Florida, while some storms may move into Oklahoma and far northern Texas today and later this evening.  Highs in the 80s and low 90s will be common throughout the South.  Another round of 100 degree weather is in the forecast for south Texas.
Midwest
Scattered showers and storms will continue along a weak frontal boundary in combination with an upper disturbance over the next couple of days.  Most of the activity for today will occur in a narrow corridor from the southern Great Lakes westward to the mid-Mississippi Valley and into portions of Kansas and Nebraska.  A few storms could be severe from western Missouri and eastern Kansas southwest to Oklahoma.  Temperatures Wednesday will range from the 60s and 70s in the Northern Great Lakes to the 80s in the Ohio and mid-Mississippi Valleys. (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.(FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Area 1
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of disturbed weather, accompanied by gale force winds, is now centered about 350 miles north of Hispaniola. There has been little change in organization during the past few hours, but upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development. This system has the potential to become a tropical storm as it continues moving west-northwestward around 20 mph.  There is a High chance, greater than 50 percent, of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. 

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Ignacio
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Ignacio was located about 815 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Ignacio is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, to the east of the center.

Area 1
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, a large but disorganized area of disturbed weather is centered several hundred miles south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this system as it moves west to west-northwestward near 10 mph over the next couple of days.  There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Area 2
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, a broad area of low pressure previously located over Central America has moved westward about 15 mph and is now centered just south of El Salvador. Satellite images indicate that the thunderstorm activity has decreased and further development, if any, should be slow to occur due to its proximity to land.  There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. 

Central Pacific
Tropical Storm Hilda
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located about 515 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii and about 715 miles southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Hilda is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph.  Hilda is forecast to remain on this course through Wednesday then turn to the west on Thursday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts.  Hilda may weaken slightly over the next 12 hours then slowly strengthen through 48 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.

Area 1
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, poorly organized thunderstorms continue within a broad, nearly stationary, west-southwest to east-northeast oriented surface trough located approximately 900 miles southwest of Honolulu, HI. Development within this trough is unlikely over the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific  
No activity affecting US territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, August 25, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (102 new fires)
New large fires:  1
Large fires contained:  3
Uncontained large fires:  4
States affected:  AZ, CA, NV, WA & WY (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On August 19, 2009, the Governor of Arizona requested an amendment to the original request submitted on October 6, 2008 for a major disaster declaration for the Sovereign Tribal Nation of the Havasupai Tribe in Coconino County.  The incident period for this declaration was established as August 15-17, 2008 as a result of thunderstorms. The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance and Hazard Mitigation. (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Wednesday, 26-Aug-2009 08:03:17 EDT