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National Situation Update: Sunday, August 23, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Northeast
Hurricane Bill is predicted to curve east and affect the Canadian Maritime Provinces Sunday. An upper-level disturbance will keep the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the Northeast. Significant coastal surf, flooding and dangerous rip currents will gradually subside as Hurricane Bill moves into the north Atlantic. On Monday, a few thunderstorms could develop in the Virginias while the rest of the showers exit via New England. Tuesday will be rain free before a new cold front approaches from southern Canada midweek, triggering scattered thunderstorms from northern Maine to northwest Pennsylvania. The front will gradually move southward into the Mid-Atlantic late in the week where the risk for showers could persist into next weekend.
South
Monday through Wednesday the South will continue dry except for gradually increasing thunderstorms in the Southeast, most numerous storms over Florida.
Late in the week, a weak cold front will move into the south-central states while Gulf moisture keeps increasing over the region, causing the thunderstorm threat to increase region wide.
Midwest
Monday through Friday, a cold front will slowly move southeastward from the Dakotas to the Ohio Valley and southern Missouri, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below average behind this next cold front. Highs around the Great Lakes could be in the 60s by Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
West
On Sunday around the western side of an upper-level high-pressure ridge, moisture and an upper-level disturbance will move northward and thunderstorms will develop from Arizona, interior Southern California and the Sierra Nevada to southern Montana, Wyoming, and the mountains of Colorado and New Mexico.
In the upcoming week, thunderstorms will continue in the Rockies and high Plains, gradually focusing more and more on Colorado and New Mexico by late week.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG-2826-WA Oden Road Fire:
The Oden Road fire has burned approximately 3,000 acres. The fire is threatening the communities of Malott and Okanogan with over 500 primary residences/businesses with a population of over 1,000. Local authorities have asked more than 100 residences to evacuate (voluntary). Cause of the fire is still undetermined but being investigated.
FMAG-2827-WA Dry Creek Fire:
The Dry Creek Complex was caused by lightning and originated on property that belongs to the Department of Energy and the Bureau of Land Management. The fire has moved toward the communities of Benton City and Prosser. Over 150 primary residences and businesses in the communities of Benton City and Prosser are directly threatened.  A mandatory evacuation for these 150 structures was scheduled to begin Saturday. If the fire cannot be contained, another 600 primary residences/businesses would also be threatened. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Hurricane Bill
Hurricane Bill advisory 32, as of 5:00 AM EDT, August 23, 2009
Bill turning toward the NNE, the outer rain bands are approaching Cape Cod and Nantucket. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the coast of Massachusetts from Woods Hole to Sagamore beach including the islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.
The center of Bill was located near latitude 40.2 north longitude 66.5 west or about 185 miles E of Nantucket, Massachusetts. Bill is moving toward the NNE near 26 mph and a turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected on Sunday. On the forecast track Bill will pass offshore of the coast of New England Sunday morninng. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts.
Bill is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles.
Additional rain accumulation of 1 inch is expected over Nantucket Island, Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard.

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Hilda
As of 5:00 AM EDT, August 23, 2009, the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located 2,025 miles WSW of the southern tip of Baja California or 1,810 miles ESE of Hilo, HI. Hilda is moving west near 9 mph and this motion is expected continue for the next 24 to 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph with higher gusts. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles.

Area 1
A tropical wave located about 560 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and Thunderstorms. Conditions appear favorable for slow development of this system during the next couple days as it moves toward the WNW at 10 to 15 mph. There is a medium chance 30 to 50 percent of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
No activity affecting US territories.

Western Pacific  
No activity affecting US territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, August 22, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (70 new fires)
New large fires:  5
Large fires contained:  2
Uncontained large fires:  14
States affected:  AK, AZ, CA, CO, NM, NV, OR, TX & WA (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)