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National Situation Update: Saturday, August 22, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast
A weak cold front could produce thunderstorms and localized flash flooding from New England and eastern New York, through eastern Pennsylvania, to Virginia.  Highs will be in the 70s and lower 80s.
Hurricane Bill will remain well offshore.  Waves will exceed 20 feet along the beaches of southeast New England and Long Island. Some coastal flooding is likely, especially at high tide.
South
A weak cold front will slowly work southward through much of the south to the Gulf and Southern coasts.  Scattered thunderstorms are forecast from North Carolina to Florida.  Hurricane Bill will sweep northward well off the East Coast on Saturday bringing 20+ foot waves to the Outer Banks and coastal flooding especially at high tide.  Highs will range from the upper 70s and low 80s in Tennessee to the low 100s in south Texas both weekend days.
Midwest
Low pressure will keep the weather unsettled across parts of northern Indiana, Michigan and Ohio but most of the rest of the region will be dry.  Highs will range from the 60s and 70s in the Great Lakes and 70s in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys to the 80s in the Plains.
West
Thunderstorms, with locally heavy rain, may cause localized flash flooding.  Highs in the lower elevations will peak in the 90s to near 100. Salt Lake City could see a high of 100 degrees.(NOAA, National Weather Service,  media sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No significant activity.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Hurricane Bill
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 22, 2009, the center of Hurricane Bill was approximately 220 miles west-northwest of Bermuda and about 430 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Bill is a Category Two Hurricane and is moving toward the north-northwest near 22 mph.  A turn to the north-northeast and increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts.

Area 1
A small area of disturbed weather associated with a Tropical Wave has developed about 625 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  This activity is expected to move westward about 15 mph and additional development, if any, will be slow to occur.  There is less than 30% chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Area 1
A well defined area of low pressure centered about 1725 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is moving westward about 10 mph.  Only a small increase in organization would cause this system to become a Tropical Depression.  There is a high chance, greater than 50%, of this system becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Area 2
A broad area of low pressure centered about 950 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, MX has become less organized.    Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it moves slowly westward.  There is a low chance, less than 30%, of this system becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Area 3
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 450 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves toward the west-northwest at 10 mph.  There is a low chance, less than 30%, of this system becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
No activity affecting US territories.

Western Pacific  
No activity affecting US territories.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity as of Friday, August 21, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (70 new fires)
New large fires:  6
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires:  14
States affected:  AZ, AK, CA, CO, NM, NV, & TX (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President signed a Disaster Declaration, FEMA-1856-DR, for severe storms and flooding in Tennessee July 15-17, 2009. Six counties are eligible for Public Assistance, including Hazard Mitigation, statewide. The FCO will be Terry L. Quarles. (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 24-Aug-2009 07:56:30 EDT