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National Situation Update: Friday, August 21, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
A cold front will continue to move southward through the southern US over the next couple of days. Areas from eastern Texas across the rest of the South will run the risk for scattered thunderstorms. Over the weekend, the South will see drier conditions and less humidity, except for the immediate Gulf Coast and the Florida Peninsula. Hurricane Bill will pass by offshore on Saturday, bringing 20+ foot waves to the Outer Banks. 
Midwest
An area of low pressure aloft will bring frequent showers and a few thunderstorms from the northern Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today. The Plains and Midwest will be dry this weekend except for lingering showers in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. Highs will range from the 70s in the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley.
Northeast
A cold front will move into the Northeast today resulting in thunderstorms and locally heavy amounts of rain. The front will stall on Saturday from southeastern New York to western Virginia. Thunderstorms are likely to produce locally heavy rain and flooding from New York and New England down to Virginia. Showers will linger near Lakes Erie and Ontario. On Sunday, Hurricane Bill will move quickly and well east of coastal New England. Waves could exceed 20 feet along the beaches of southeast New England and Down East Maine. Dangerous rip currents are also likely.
West
An area of high pressure aloft will keep much of the West dry. The Interior West and Rockies will see well above average temperatures. Precipitation will be confined to isolated thunderstorms in New Mexico and Arizona and a couple of showers ahead of a Pacific system in western Washington. Highs Friday will range from the 80s and lower 90s in Montana to between 100 and 120 in the Desert Southwest. On Saturday around the western side of the upper-level high, thunderstorms will develop northward from Arizona and California into the Sierra and Nevada Great Basin. (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Region V Severe Weather

  • Severe thunderstorms, heavy rains, and unconfirmed tornadoes impacted eastern Minnesota, Indiana and western and central Illinois
  • RRCC at Watch/Steady State; State EOCs not activated

Illinois:

  • Eight counties affected
    • Scott County- Two homes with major damage
    • Morgan County- One home with major damage
    • Sangamon County- 12 homes with major damage in Village of Loami, 2 businesses destroyed, 1 church with major damage, 20 homes with major damage in Village of Williamsville
    • Logan County- 22 structures with major damage
      • Assessments ongoing
      • County Board of Supervisors has declared a countywide disaster
      • 12 structures uninhabitable
    • Fayette County- 7000 customers without power in Ramsey and Vandalia counties
      • Vandalia counties water supply is down and they have requested a 125 KW 3-phase generator.

Red Cross has opened two shelters; Williamsville and Loami

  • Damage to homes; downed trees
  • 2 injuries; no fatalities

Minnesota:

  • 5 counties affected
  • NWS spotters confirmed a tornado touched down in south Minneapolis
  • Reports of downed trees and power lines, street flooding and property damage
  • 0 injuries; 0 fatalities  (Region V RRCC)

Region IX Fire

La Brea Fire, Los Padres National Forest

  • 21 miles east of Santa Maria, CA
  • 89,368 acres; 94% containment (FEMA Region IX, Cal Fire, InciWeb)

Lockheed Fire, Santa Cruz County, California

  • 4 miles NE of Ben Lomond, CA
  • 7,364 acres; 80% containment (expected containment on August 22)
  • 8 injuries (first responders)
  • FMAG-2824-CA granted Aug 13(FEMA Region IX, Cal Fire)

Yuba Fire, California

  • 3 miles northeast of Dobbins, CA.
  • 3,891 acres; 85% contained (expected containment on August 23)
  • 27 injuries (first responders)
  • FMAG -2825-CA granted August 15(FEMA Region IX, Cal Fire)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No significant activity.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Hurricane Bill
At 5:00 a.m. EDT the center of hurricane bill was located about 425 miles south of Bermuda and about 865 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Bill is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph. A gradual turn to the north-northwest is expected later today followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday.  On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane is expected to pass between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts.  Bill is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Satellite imagery indicates that the hurricane has become less organized during the past few hours.  However, some strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Saturday.

Eastern Pacific
Area 1
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1580 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has diminished somewhat this evening. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward around 10 mph.  There is a less than 30 percent of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
No activity affecting US territories.

Western Pacific  
No activity affecting US territories.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, August 20, 2009:

  • Initial attack activity: Light (52 new fires)
  • New large fires:  2
  • Large fires contained:  1
  • Uncontained large fires:  13
  • States affected:  CA, AZ, AK, TX & UT (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Friday, 21-Aug-2009 08:06:52 EDT