National Situation Update: Monday, August 17, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall overnight.
The heaviest rain with this system will fall over the Florida Panhandle west of the Big Bend area and into adjacent parts of southern Alabama. Totals through today of three (3) inches are likely, with locally six (6) inches possible; some localized flash flooding may result.
An influx of tropical moisture around the Bermuda high today will allow for scattered thunderstorms (with locally heavy downpours) over the Southeast and the Gulf Coast. A front will also bring thunderstorms, possibly severe, to Oklahoma. Highs today will range from the 90s to near 100 over much of Texas to the 80s from the lower-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas.

Midwest
Showers and thunderstorms will continue near a slow-moving front in the Midwest.
Today, storms with heavy rainfall will extend from the Great Lakes southwestward to the mid-Mississippi Valley and the Central Plains. Storms could be severe, with threats of damaging wind and hail, from Illinois to Kansas, Oklahoma and Colorado. Tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms will extend from the Ohio Valley westward to the Central Plains.

Northeast
Today, there is a chance of a thunderstorm over the Central Appalachians. Afternoon readings in the upper 80s and low 90s will be common. A front will approach from the Midwest tomorrow, bringing the threat of storms to mainly the western portions of the region; areas to the east of the Appalachians along the I-95 corridor should see another hot, mostly sunny day.

West
Dry conditions are forecast for much of the West today into tomorrow; the only exception will be some thunderstorms in the upslope areas of eastern Colorado and New Mexico, with some of the activity in eastern Colorado expected to be severe today. High-pressure aloft will build into the Northwest through midweek, sending temperatures to above-average. Highs today along the I-5 corridor will range from near 80 in Seattle, Washington to the upper 90s in Medford, Oregon. (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Lockheed Fire, California

Lockheed Fire, located in Santa Cruz County, California has burned 6,843 acres and is 65 percent contained; containment expected on August 20, 2009.
Four (4) firefighter injuries reported.
Governor Schwarzenegger declared a State of Emergency for Santa Cruz County on August 14, 2009.
Santa Cruz reactivated as of 10:00 a.m. EDT, August 16, 2009.
100 residences threatened, with mandatory evacuations continued for Bonny Doon and Swanton.
Two (2) outbuildings damaged.
One (1) shelter open, 0 occupants
FEMA-2824-FM-CA approved. (FEMA Region IX)

Yuba Fire, California

Yuba Fire, located in Dobbins, California, has burned over 3,260 acres and is 15 percent containment; 1,581 personnel are assigned.
400 residences, 30 commercial properties and 100 outbuildings threatened.
Two (2) firefighter injuries reported.
Two (2) residences destroyed.
California Utilities Management agency reports 255 PG&E customers remain without power, due to a downed 60 kV power line.
Mandatory evacuations continue on three roads in Dobbins; evacuations planned for areas of Nevada County threatened by spot fire.
Power Impacts: Beale Air Force Base and North Sacramento to Yuba City (Per California Utilities Emergency Association Beale AFB is not currently affected).
The Yuba County EOC is activated at Duty Officer status; a County OES Liaison will be working 12-hour shifts and the Inland REOC will support Yuba County at Duty Officer Status.
FMAG-2825 was declared at 3:11 am EDT, August 15, 2009.
American Red Cross (ARC) shelter closed. (FEMA Region IX)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No significant activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical Depression (TD) Ana
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 17, 2009, the Government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua, Barbuda and Montserrat.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Saba, St. Eustatius, Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy and the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Beata.

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 17, 2009, the poorly-defined center of TD Ana was approximately 95 miles southeast of St. Croix. TD Ana is moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph and this general motion, with a decrease in forward speed, is expected over the next couple of days. On this track, TD Ana is forecast to cross the coast of the Dominican Republic later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. However, TD Ana could degenerate into a Tropical Wave later today.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1,008 mb (29.77 inches).
TD Ana is expected to produce rainfall amounts of two-to-four (2 - 4) inches over the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic, with isolated maximum amounts of six (6) inches over mountainous terrain.

Hurricane Bill
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 17, 2009, the center of Hurricane Bill was located approximately 1,160 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Hurricane Bill is moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 22 mph; this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24-to-48-hours.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph. Strengthening is forecast during the next day-or-two, and Hurricane Bill could become a Major Hurricane by Wednesday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

Tropical Storm (TS) Claudette
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 17, 2009, the Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued east of Indian Pass, Florida and west of Destin, Florida.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Destin, Florida eastward to Indian Pass. This warning will likely be discontinued later this morning.

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 17, 2009, the center of TS Claudette was located approximately 15 miles south-southeast of Brewton, Alabama and about 40 miles northwest of Fort Walton Beach, Florida. TS Claudette is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today. On this track, the center of TS Claudette will move into southern Alabama this morning, and then into northeastern Mississippi tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Weakening is expected as the system moves over land and TS Claudette is expected to weaken to a Tropical Depression later this morning.
Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles, mainly over water to the southeast of the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1,006 mb (29.71 inches).
Rainfall accumulations of three-to-six (3 - 6) 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across the Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend region of Florida and southern-to-central Alabama.
Storm tides of three-to-five (3 - 5) feet above ground level along portions of the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend region of Florida are expected to gradually subside this morning.

Eastern Pacific
No activity affecting US territories.

Central Pacific
Tropical Storm (TS) Guillermo
Effective 11:00 p.m. EDT, August 16, 2009, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii will be issuing bulleting concerning Hurricane Guillermo.
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 17, 2009, the center of TS Guillermo was approximately 815 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.

TS Guillermo is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph, and will gradually turn to a northwest track over the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, with higher gusts, and will continue to weaken over the next 48 hours. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).

Western Pacific
No activity affecting US territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

At approximately 8:05 p.m. EDT, August 16, 2009, a 6.7 magnitude earthquake occurred approximately 73 miles south-southwest of Ishigaki-jima, Ryukyu Islands, Japan (638 miles north-northeast of Manila, Philippines) at a depth of 6.2 miles. No reports of injury, damage or tsunami. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 3
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, August 16, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (129 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 2
Uncontained large fires: 19
States affected: AK, AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, WA, & UT (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity