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National Situation Update: Sunday, August 16, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
Thunderstorms will occur today from Tennessee and North Carolina to the Gulf Coast and Florida; rainfall will be heaviest toward the coasts.
Severe thunderstorms are forecast today for Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, ahead of the Midwest cold front, with highs ranging from the 80s in the Carolinas and Georgia to the 90s and low 100s in the southern Plains.
Tomorrow, the stalling cold front north of the region will produce thunderstorms from the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles to Tennessee, while the tropical moisture already in place will trigger more thunderstorms across the Deep South.
The thunderstorms will keep many locations in the 80s tomorrow, but North Carolina and Florida could see low 90s and the southern Plains will again peak in the 90s to low 100s.

Midwest
A cold front will divide the Midwest from the northern Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes to Kansas today, triggering severe thunderstorms and locally flash-flooding downpours, with showers and thunderstorms forecast for the Dakotas and Nebraska.
Tomorrow, the front and thunderstorms will stretch from the Great Lakes to Kansas and on Tuesday from the Ohio Valley to Kansas.

Northeast
High pressure will control the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through tomorrow and, except for possible thunderstorms in Maine, skies are forecast to remain clear, with highs in the 80s to low 90s.
A cold front will move into the region Tuesday, triggering thunderstorms from central-and-western-Upstate New York to Virginia and West Virginia, with highs ranging from the 70s west of the Appalachians to the 80s and low 90s east of the mountains.

West
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the Rockies and High Plains today, with highs ranging from the 60s and a few low 70s in Montana and Wyoming to the 80s in the Willamette Valley, between 95 and 100 in the Central Valley of California and between 100 and 110 in the Desert Southwest.
Tomorrow, any thunderstorms that might happen will be confined to Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico.
Tuesday and Wednesday, thunderstorms will occur from Montana to Colorado while isolated thunderstorms shift westward across New Mexico and Arizona. (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Lockheed Fire, California

Lockheed Fire, located in Santa Cruz County, California, has burned 6,843 acres and is 40 percent contained.
One (1) injury reported.
Governor Schwarzenegger declared a State of Emergency for Santa Cruz County on August 14, 2009.
250 structures are threatened, with mandatory evacuations for Bonny Doon and Swanton.
One (1) shelter open, 0 occupants
FEMA-2824-FM-CA approved. (FEMA Region IX, CALFIRE)

Yuba Fire, California

Yuba Fire, located in Dobbins, California, has burned over 2,000 acres and is 15 percent containment. 
There are 400 residents under mandatory evacuation for portions of the communities of Dobbins and Oregon House; evacuations planned for areas of Nevada County threatened by spot fire.
800 residences, 30 commercial properties threatened. 
Two (2) injuries reported.
Two (2) structures destroyed.
PG&E reports 8000 residences potentially out of power, lines de-energized and powerhouses shut down.
Power Impacts: Beale Air Force Base and North Sacramento to Yuba City (Per California Utilities Emergency Association Beale AFB is not currently affected). 
The Yuba County EOC is activated.
FMAG-2825 was declared at 3:11 am EDT, August 15, 2009.
One (1) shelter opened; population 4.  (FEMA Region IX, CA Emergency Management Agency, CALFIRE)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No significant activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical Storm (TS) Ana
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 16, 2009, a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Puerto Rico.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the US Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius.
Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of TS Ana.  Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas later today.
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 16, 2009, the center of TS Ana was approximately 560 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.
TS Ana is moving toward the west near 20 mph.  A turn to the west-northwest is expected within the next 24 hours.  The center of TS Ana should reach the Leeward Islands by early tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1,005 mb (29.68 inches).
TS Ana is expected to produce rainfall amounts of two-to-four (2 - 4) inches over the Leeward Islands, including the US and British Virgin Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of six (6) inches over mountainous terrain.
NICC reports that the Office of Infrastructure Protection Protective Security Advisor (PSA) for Puerto Rico is in communication with Puerto Rico EMA (PREMA) and has gathered the interagency coordinators to go over the State and Municipal Plans.
NORTHCOM reported three (3) Teal WC-130 aircraft are forward deploying to St. Croix; one (1) arrived yesterday, August 15, 2009 and two (2) more will arrive today.  Teal 70 will fly a sortie against TS Ana at 11:30 a.m. EDT today.

Tropical Storm (TS) Bill
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 16, 2009, the center of Tropical Storm (TS) Bill was located approximately 1,640 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
TS Bill is moving toward the west near 13 mph.  A gradual turn toward the west-northwest, with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24-to-48-hours.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast and TS Bill is expected to become a Hurricane during the next few days.
Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1,002 mb (29.59 inches).

Tropical Depression #4 (TD #4)
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 16, 2009, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to the Suwannee River, Florida.
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 16, 2009, the center of TD #4 was located approximately 90 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida and about 155 miles south-southeast of Apalachicola, Florida.
TD #4 is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph, and this motion is expected to continue today.  On the forecast track, the center of TD #4 should be very near the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by late this afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts.  Strengthening is expected, and TD #4 is forecast to become a Tropical Storm prior to reaching the coastline.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1,011 mb (29.85 inches).
Rainfall accumulations of three-to-five (3 - 5) 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of north Florida near the path of TD #4's center are expected.
Coastal storm surge flooding of three-to-five (3 - 5) feet above normal tide levels can be expected near and to the east of where the center of TD #4 makes landfall.

Eastern Pacific
Hurricane Guillermo
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 16, 2009, the center of Hurricane Guillermo was approximately 1,150 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.
Guillermo is moving toward the west near 15 mph and this general motion, with a turn toward the west-northwest, is expected during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph, with higher gusts.  Guillermo is expected to weaken to a Tropical Storm over the next 24-to-48-hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches).

Central Pacific
No activity affecting US territories.

Western Pacific 
No activity affecting US territories.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, August 15, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (121 new fires)
New large fires:  3
Large fires contained:  2
Uncontained large fires:  24
States affected:  AK, AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, TX, & UT(NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 17-Aug-2009 08:00:25 EDT