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National Situation Update: Saturday, August 15, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest
A cold front will trigger thunderstorms, some severe, over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend.  There may be some localized heavy rain and flooding, as well. Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley will stay dry.

 South
A cold front with a tropical wave will produce numerous showers and thunderstorms from the Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast states. Some localized flooding is possible, as well.  High temperatures will range from the 80s in the Southeast to the 90s in the southern Plains and near 100 in south Texas.
 
Northeast
There will be isolated thunderstorms over the coastal Middle Atlantic.  High temperatures will be well into the 80s, with a few low 90s.

West
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the mountains of Utah and Colorado to Idaho and Montana.   Highs will range from the 50s and 60s in Montana and much of Wyoming to over 100 in the Desert Southwest. (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Lockheed Fire, California

Lockheed Fire located in Santa Cruz County, California has burned 5,035 acres and is 15% contained.
Lieutenant Governor Garamendi declared a State of Emergency for Santa Cruz County on August 14, 2009.
More than 250 homes are threatened with mandatory evacuations for Bonny Doon and Swanton.
1 shelter open, 12 residents
FEMA-2824-FM-CA approved. (FEMA Region 9)

Yuba Fire, California

Yuba Fire located in Dobbins, California has burned over 1,000 acres with no containment.  FMAG-2825 was declared at 3:11 am EDT, August 15, 2009.
There are 450 residents under mandatory evacuation. 1,600 residences and 30 businesses are threatened.  Power lines are threatened and about 3,000 customers are without power.
The Yuba County EOC is activated.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FEMA-2825-FM-CA was declared on August 15, 2009 at 3:11 am EDT for the Yuba Fire, Dobbins, CA in Yuba County.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ana
Tropical Storm Ana forms in the Atlantic.
As of August 15, 2009 at 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Ana was located about 1010 miles east of the Leeward Islands.  Tropical Storm Ana is moving toward the west about 16 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Ana has sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast the next 48 hours. 

Area 1
A low pressure system located about 475 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to become better organized and a tropical depression may be forming as it moves westward at 15 mph.  There is a high chance, greater than 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Area 2
A tropical wave interacting with an upper level low is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers from the western Caribbean northward across Cuba and the Bahamas.   This activity is expected to spread west-northwestward over south Florida, the Florida Keys and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.  There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Hurricane Guillermo
As of August 14, 2009 at 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center  of Hurricane Guillermo was located about 1450 miles west of the southern tip of Baja, California
Guillermo is moving west-northwest near 16 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts.  Guillermo is a category 3 hurricane.
Slow weakening is expected to begin later today with additional weakening on Sunday as Guillermo moves over cooler waters. 

Central Pacific
Remnant Low Nine-E
As of August 15, 2009 at 1:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Remnant Low Nine-E was located about 1,175 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have increased over the past few hours there is a low chance, less than 30%, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific 
No activity affecting U.S. territories (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A swarm of earthquakes occurred in the Puerto Rico area, ranging from 3.0 to 3.8 magnitude. There were no reports of damage.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity as of Friday, August 14, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (123 new fires)

  • New large fires:  4
  • Large fires contained:  2
  • Uncontained large fires:  24
  • States affected:  AK, AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, TX, & UT(NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On Aug 14, 2009, the President declared a Major Disaster Declaration for the State of Kentucky (FEMA-1855-DR) as a result of Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding that occurred August 4, 2009. The declaration provides Individual Assistance for Jefferson County and Hazard Mitigation statewide. Michael J. Lapinski has been appointed as the Federal Coordinating Officer. (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 17-Aug-2009 07:54:05 EDT