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National Situation Update: Friday, August 14, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the Dakotas to northwest Minnesota, some storms could turn severe with damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rain.  Widely scattered thunderstorms are likely across the high Plains from South Dakota to Kansas.  Highs will range from the 80s in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the 90s in the Plains.
 South
The coastal Carolinas to Florida will have showers and thunderstorms from a stalled front over the area. With the possibility of some localized flooding.  The South will be mainly dry, except for a few thunderstorms in western Oklahoma and western and southern Texas.  Highs will range from the 80s in the Southeast to the 90s in the southern Plains and near 100 in south Texas.
Northeast
Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over parts of the eastern and southern Mid-Atlantic Friday.
Highs Friday will be in the 80s across the region.
West
Weather conditions will be unsettled and much cooler over parts of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming as a cold front swings through. In fact, higher elevations of northwest Montana may even see snow.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot the Rockies and high Plains.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Better Observations, Analyses Detecting Short-Lived Tropical Systems

A NOAA-led team of scientists has found that the apparent increase in the number of tropical storms and hurricanes since the late 19th and early 20th centuries is likely attributable to improvements in observational tools and analysis techniques that better detect short-lived storms.
The new study, reported in the online edition of the American Meteorological Society's peer-reviewed Journal of Climate, shows that short-lived tropical storms and hurricanes, defined as lasting two days or less, have increased from less than one per year to about five per year from 1878 to 2008.
"The recent jump in the number of short-lived systems is likely a consequence of improvements in observational tools and analysis techniques," said Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, and lead author on the study. "The team is not aware of any natural variability or greenhouse warming-induced climate change that would affect the short-lived tropical storms exclusively."

Several storms in the last two seasons, including 2007's Andrea, Chantal, Jerry and Melissa and 2008's Arthur and Nana, would likely not have been considered tropical storms had it not been for technology such as satellite observations from NASA's Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), the European ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) and NOAA's Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), as well as analysis techniques such as the Florida State University's Cyclone Phase Space.

Co-authors Gabriel Vecchi and Thomas Knutson, both of the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, developed a sampling methodology to measure whether meteorologists missed medium- to long-lived tropical storms and hurricanes from the late 1800s through the 1950s. They found that about two of the medium- to long-lived storms per year were unaccounted for in the late 1800s. By the 1950s, forecasters missed less than one per year.

When the researchers discounted the number of short-lived tropical storms and hurricanes and added the estimated number of missed medium- to long-lived storms to the historical hurricane data, they found no significant long-term trend in the total number of storms.

The team also noted that the finding of no increasing trend in hurricane and tropical storm counts in the Atlantic is consistent with several recent global warming simulations from high-resolution global climate model and regional downscaling models. (Excerpt from www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090811_tropical.html)

Lockheed Fire, California

Lockheed Fire located in Santa Cruz County, California has burned 2,800 acres and is 0% contained. 
2,400 residences are threatened with mandatory evacuations for Bonny Doon and Swanton.
1 shelter open, zero residents
FEMA-2824-FM-CA approved. (FEMA Region 9)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Remnant Low, former Tropical Depression TWO
As of August 14, 2009 at 2:00 a.m. EDT, the center of remnant low formerly Tropical Depression TWO was located about 1375 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.  The low is moving toward the west about 10 mph and this general motion is expected over the next couple of days.  There is a medium chance, 30 to 50%, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.  No further advisories on remnant low formerly Tropical Depression Two will be issued by the National Huricane Center.
Area 1
A low pressure is located about 175 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  This system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next day or two as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
There is a high chance, greater than 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours
Area 2
A tropical wave over Hispaniola, accompanied by cloudiness and showers, is moving westward or west-northwestward during the next couple of days.  Upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development.  There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours
Eastern Pacific
Hurricane Guillermo
As of August 14, 2009 at 2:00 a.m. PDT, the center of Hurricane Guillermo was located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California.  Guillermo is moving west near 15 mph and a turn to the west-northwest is expected over the next day.  Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts; Guillermo could become a hurricane today.
Central Pacific
Remnant Low Nine-E
As of August 13, 2009 at 11:00 p.m. PDT, the center of Remnant Low Nine-E was located about 1,300 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized.  There is a medium chance, 30 to 50%, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific 
No activity affecting U.S. territories (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, August 13, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (116 new fires)
New large fires:  4
Large fires contained:  4
Uncontained large fires:  26
States affected:  AK, AZ, CA, ID, MT, CO, NM, OR, TX, UT, & WA (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On Aug 13, 2009, the President declared a Major Disaster Declaration for the State of Iowa (FEMA-1854-DR) as a result of Severe Storms occurring July 10, 2009. The declaration provides Public Assistance for Black Hawk County and Hazard Mitigation statewide. Michael L. Parker has been appointed as the Federal Coordinating Officer. (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Friday, 14-Aug-2009 08:36:35 EDT