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National Situation Update: Thursday, August 13, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest
A cold front along the Canadian border will produce showers and thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest. Temperature highs will be in the 80s through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and 90s from Kansas to North Dakota

South
Heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast in the Southeastern States with the heaviest rain expected from eastern North Carolina to southeast Georgia and northeast Florida; flash flooding is also possible in these areas.  Temperatures will range from the 80s across the Southeast to over 100 in South Texas

Northeast
Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible throughout the region.  Highs will mostly be in the 70s and 80s across the Northeast

West
Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the interior Northwest.  Highs will range from the 60s and 70s across Oregon and northern Idaho to the 80s and 90s in lower elevations of the interior (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Eastern Pacific
Remnant Low Nine-E
As of August 12, 2009 at 8:00 p.m. PDT, the center of Remnant Low Nine-E was located about 1,700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The low is moving west-southwest near 9 mph and this motion should continue until dissipation.  Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts; the low is forecast to dissipate in a day or so
Tropical Storm Guillermo
As of August 13, 2009 at 2:00 a.m. PDT, the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was located about 805 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California.  Guillermo is moving west-northwest near 16 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.  Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts; some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours

Central Pacific
Remnant Low Maka
The remnants of former Tropical Depression Maka are currently located more than 1,400 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii moving west near 15 mph.  The system is unlikely to reorganize over the next 48 hours.
Area 1
A surface trough located 500 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is moving west at 10 to 15 mph.  Thunderstorms have been pulsing near the trough and development, if any, will be slow to occur over the next couple of days

Atlantic
Tropical Depression TWO
As of August 13, 2009 at 2:00 a.m. EST, the center of Tropical Depression TWO was located about 840 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.  The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph and this general motion is expected over the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts; although the depression appears to be weakening at this time, the depression still has the potential to become a tropical storm in a day or two
Area 1
A vigorous tropical wave is expected to pass well to the south of the Cape Verde Islands today while moving westward at 10 to 15 mph.  Although the shower activity is limited at this time, conditions appear to be favorable for slow development.  There is a medium chance, 30 to 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours
Area 2
A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic, accompanied by cloudiness and showers, is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph.  Upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development.  There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours

Western Pacific 
No activity affecting U.S. territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, August 12, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (105 new fires)
New large fires:  5
Large fires contained:  4
Uncontained large fires:  28
States affected:  AK, AZ, CA, CO, NM, OR, TX, UT, & WA (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Governor of Kentucky has requested a major declaration for the State of Kentucky as a result of record-breaking torrential rains caused flash flooding beginning August 4th, 2009.  The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance for the county of Jefferson and Hazard Mitigation statewide.  (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 13-Aug-2009 08:01:01 EDT