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National Situation Update: Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Remnant Low Felicia:

As of August 11, 2009 at 11:00 p.m. EDT, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory on former tropical depression Felicia.  The remnant low pressure system is centered about 95 miles east of Kahului, Hawaii, and redevelopment is highly unlikely as the system slowly moves west over the next couple of days. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Significant National Weather

Midwest
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of Ohio and eastern Kentucky.  Temperature highs will be in the 80s and 90s across the Dakotas and Minnesota.
South
Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are forecast from the central Gulf Coast northeastward to Georgia and the Carolinas as a cold front moves slowly through the region.  Temperatures will be in the 90s across Texas and all of Oklahoma. 
Northeast
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast from New England to the Mid-Atlantic.  Highs in the 70s and 80s will be common throughout the Northeast. 
West
Thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest.  Highs will range from the 70s across western Washington to the 90s in portions of Montana and southern Idaho. (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Depression Nine-E
As of August 12, 2009 at 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located about 1,510 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph with higher gusts; little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Area 1
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California are gradually becoming better-organized.  Conditions appear to be favorable for additional development of this system during the next couple of days as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  There is a high chance (greater than 50%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
Tropical Depression Maka
In addition to Felicia, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing bulletins on Tropical Depression Maka, currently located about 1,125 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii and is moving west near 12 mph.  A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast over the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 48 hours.
Area 3
A surface trough located 760 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is moving to the west near 15 mph.  Thunderstorm activity has been pulsing near the trough, and development, if any, will be slow to occur over the next couple of days.

Atlantic
Tropical Depression TWO
As of August 12, 2009 at 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression TWO was located about 535 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.  The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph and this general motion is expected for the next day or two with some increase in forward speed.  Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  The depression could become a tropical storm during the next couple of days.
Area 1
A small low over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing a limited area of showers and thunderstorms.  Development of this system is not expected and there is a low chance (less than 30%) of it becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Area 2
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about 420 miles east of the Lesser Antilles remains minimal.  Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it moves west to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  There is a low chance (less than 30%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Area 3
A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the coast of western Africa is associated with a vigorous tropical wave.  Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves to the west at 10 to 15 mph.  There is a low chance (less than 30%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific 
No activity affecting U.S. territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, August 11, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (83 new fires)
New large fires:  4
Large fires contained:  4
Uncontained large fires:  34
States affected:  AK, AZ, CA, CO, NM, OR, TX, UT, & WA (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Governor of Tennessee has requested a major declaration for the State of Tennessee as a result of severe storms, heavy rains, flooding and flash flooding during the period of July 15-17, 2009.  The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance for six counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide. (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Wednesday, 12-Aug-2009 08:03:07 EDT