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National Situation Update: Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Tropical Storm Felicia:

As of August 11, 2009 at 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located about 160 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii and about 315 miles east of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Tropical Storm Felicia is moving toward the west near 10 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center; maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.  The center of Felicia is expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands later today and the affects of the storm are already being felt.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Hawaiian Weather Forecast

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Oahu, Maui, Kahoolawe, Lanai, and Molokai.  A High Surf Warning remains in effect until 6:00 p.m. HST today for the east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands; waves up to 15 feet are possible.  Although gradual weakening is forecast for the next couple of days, Felicia could still reach the Hawaiian Islands as either a tropical depression or a tropical storm. 
Regardless of strength, Felicia could still produce pockets of heavy rain, flash flooding and strong winds, especially near higher terrain, when it reaches the Hawaiian Islands. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Significant National Weather

Midwest
Thunderstorms are forecast for areas from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley due to a cold front moving slowly through the region.  Temperature highs will be in the 70s and 80s across the Great Lakes and Ohio and Mississippi Valleys.
South
A cold front moving slowly through the Region will produce scattered thunderstorms from the northern half of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the Carolinas today.  Temperature will remain hot for most of the Region; highs in the mid and upper 90s are expected from Raleigh, NC to Savannah, GA to over 100 in South Texas.
Northeast
A cold front moving into the Region will produce scattered thunderstorms, some severe, from Connecticut to Maryland.  Temperatures will drop today, but remain humid; highs will range from the low 80s around Boston to near 90 in Washington, D.C. 
West
The Southwest will remain hot today, while the Northwest will be cool.  Highs will range from the 50s and 60s across western Washington to the 110s in the Desert Southwest. (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Depression Nine-E
As of August 11, 2009 at 2:00 a.m. PDT, the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located about 1,205 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts; some strengthening is possible and the deression could become a tropical storm during the next couple days.

Area 1
A broad area of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of the southern tip of baja california continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next couple of days as it moves westward around 15 mph.  There is a medium chance, 30 to 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
In addition to Felicia, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing bulletins on Tropical Depression One-C, currently about 970 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii and moving west northwest at 10 mph.

Atlantic
Area 1
The broad area of low pressure located just to the west-southwest of the southern Cape Verde islands is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph.  The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or so.  There is a medium chance, 30 to 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours

Area 2
A tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Any development of this system is likely to be slow as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.  There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Area 3
A small area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Windward Islands.  Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the southeastern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.  There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific 
No activity affecting U.S. territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity as of Monday, August 10, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Moderate (120 new fires)
New large fires:  3
Large fires contained:  4
Uncontained large fires:  38
States affected:  AK, AZ, CA, CO, ID, NM, OR, TX, UT, & WA(NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment #1 for FEMA-1853-DR-NE was received on August 10, 2009; the amendment added four counties for Public Assistance.
Amendment #6 for FEMA-1829-DR-NE was received on August 10, 2009; the amendment closed the incident period for this disaster. (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Tuesday, 11-Aug-2009 08:11:55 EDT