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National Situation Update: Sunday, August 9, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hurricane Felicia:

At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Hurricane Felicia was located about 675 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii or about 855 miles east of Honolulu, Hawaii. Felicia is moving toward the west near 15 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. Felicia is expected to be over the Hawaiian Islands by Monday. The maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane Felicia is a Category One hurricane.  Slow weakening is forecast during the next couple of days and Felicia is expected to weaken to a tropical storm today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. (NOAA,NWS, Central Pacific Hurricane Center)

Hawaiian Weather Forecast:

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Small Craft Advisory are in effect for Hawaiian waters. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, Maui, Big Island, and Maui and Big Island waters. A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for Kahoolawe, Lanai, Maui, Molokai and the Big Island. For the latest information see www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl/ 
Note:  A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 24 hours or less
Note:  A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the area generally within the next 48 hours
The onset of winds from Hurricane Felicia will begin to impact Hawaii Monday afternoon, 10 Aug with sustained winds at 50 mph and higher gusts near the peak of the mountains. However, Felicia is forecast to weaken to a Tropical Storm prior to passing over the islands.
There is considerable uncertainty in the locations that will be affected, the onset, and duration of heavy rains as well as the rainfall amounts that are expected to occur all of these are dependent on the track Felicia ultimately takes.
The surf will begin to rise on Sunday, 9 Aug and will range 10-15 feet.  A Small Craft Advisory is in effect with wind waves forecast to reach 12 feet. Rain bands will begin Monday, 10 Aug with 24-hour rainfall amounts forecast to be 5-7 inches; however, some estimates call for as much as 12 inches due to terrain.(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Significant National Weather

West:
The region will be generally dry with just a few thunderstorms in the northern Rockies and the High Plains and rain on the Washington and Oregon Coast. The thunderstorms in eastern Colorado may become severe. High temperatures will be between 95 and 100 in the Central Valley of California and between 100 and 115 in the Desert Southwest.
Midwest:
A cold front extending from the Great Lakes to Kansas will produce widespread precipitation including scattered severe thunderstorms. Tomorrow, the cold front will produce additional thunderstorms across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mid-Mississippi Valley with a few isolated storms extending southwest along the front to Kansas.
South:
With a high pressure area over the region, the only significant weather will be scattered thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast associated with the onshore flow. High temperatures will be between 95 and 100 across the Southern Plains and Texas. Highs will be near 100 in the Carolinas.
Northeast:
A warm front will produce heavy precipitation across New York, central and southern New England, eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Some severe thunderstorms and localized flooding are possible. Behind the front, temperatures will be on the increase in the Mid-Atlantic with highs in the 90s.  Tomorrow, with the warm front in Maine, the 90s will expand northward into southern New England and the Delmarva Peninsula will be near 100. (NOAA, National Weather Service, media sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Eastern Pacific
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 825 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California remains minimal at this time.  However, some slow development of this system is still possible over the next couple of days as it moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph.  There is a less than 30 percent chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
In addition to Felicia, the National Weather Service is watching an area of thunderstorms south of the Hawaiian Islands centered about 730 miles southwest of Hilo moving west-northwest at 25 mph.
Atlantic
An area of concentrated thunderstorms between the Cape Verde Islands and the coast of Africa is associated with a westward moving tropical wave.  Slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days.  There is a less than 30 percent chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. 
Western Pacific          
No activity affecting U.S. territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, August 8, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Moderate (237 new fires)
New large fires:  5
Large fires contained:  5
Uncontained large fires:  38
States affected:  AK, AZ, CA, ID, NC, NM, OR, TX, UT, & WA (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 10-Aug-2009 07:45:23 EDT