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National Situation Update: Friday, August 7, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
An upper-level disturbance moving from the Northwest into the Northern Plains will create severe thunderstorms across the Great Basin, Rockies and northern High Plains. Dry, downslope winds are expected to develop east of the Sierra Nevada, enhancing the fire danger across the Central Great Basin. Red Flag Warnings and Critical fire weather are forecast for the Four Corners Area. Thunderstorms are forecast across Idaho, Montana, western Wyoming and northern Utah on Saturday.
Midwest:
A frontal system, coupled with an upper-level disturbance, will move from the Dakotas to northern Michigan over the next three days. Thunderstorms, some severe, will develop from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes. These thunderstorms will produce up to two inches of precipitation and localized flooding. The rain will be beneficial over the worst of the Upper Midwest drought across east-central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
South:
Scattered thunderstorms will move slowly northward from the northern Gulf Coast and Florida through the weekend. The most concentrated storms will be over southern Louisiana, Mississippi and the Florida Peninsula.
Northeast:
Under high pressure the only significant weather will be a few afternoon thunderstorms over northern Maine. A warm front will develop this weekend and bisect the Mid-Atlantic from Lake Erie to the Chesapeake Bay Saturday and Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will be mainly north of the Mason-Dixon Line across New York, southern New England, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.(NOAA, National Weather Service,  media sources)

NOAA Lowers Hurricane Season Outlook

According to its August Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Niño continue to develop. But scientists say the season's quiet start does not guarantee quiet times ahead. The season, which began June 1, is entering its historical peak period of August through October, when most storms form.

In recent weeks, forecasts for the return of El Niño - warmer than normal waters along the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean - have come to fruition. Even though El Niño tends to decrease the number of storms, other climate factors may help to create some storms. As predicted in May, conditions associated with the high-activity era that began in 1995 are in place, and include enhanced rainfall over West Africa and warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean water, which favor storm development.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, now predicts a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5).

The main change from the May outlook is an increased probability of a below-normal season, and an expectation of fewer named storms and hurricanes. During an average season, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which six become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater and two of those become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.

The calm start to this hurricane season is not a reliable indicator of the overall activity for the entire season. The 1992 Atlantic hurricane season, for example, had a below-normal number of named storms and hurricanes. The first storm did not form until late August, when Hurricane Andrew hit southern Florida as a destructive Category 5 storm.

Predicting where and when a storm may hit land depends on the weather conditions in place at the time the storm approaches. Therefore NOAA's seasonal outlook, which spans multiple months, does not include landfall projections. (Excerpt from www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090806_hurricaneupdate.html)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Eastern / Central Pacific
Hurricane Felicia:
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Felicia was located about 1,365 miles east of   Hilo, Hawaii.
Felicia is moving toward the west northwest near 10 mph and a general west-northwest motion is expected later today with a gradual turn toward the west forecast on Saturday. The maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast over the next couple of days as Felicia moves over cooler waters. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

Tropical Depression Enrique:
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Enrique was located about 1,250 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, MX. The tropical depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph.  This motion is expected until dissipation. The maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast and Enrique is expected to become a remnant low later today.
Atlantic
Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific 
No activity affecting U.S. territories.(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, August 6, 2009:

  • Initial attack activity: Moderate (267 new fires)
  • New large fires:  10
  • Large fires contained:  4
  • Uncontained large fires:  36
  • States affected:  OR, WA, AK, CA, AZ, CO, UT, ID, NM, NC, NV, TX, & WY, (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Friday, 07-Aug-2009 07:50:59 EDT