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National Situation Update: Thursday, July 23, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Showers and thunderstorms will move into the region along a cold front today.  Chances of rain are expected from Upstate New York to Virginia.  A few of the storms are forecast to be severe, with gusty winds and/or hail.  An area of low pressure may form off the East Coast and head northward through tomorrow, which may bring more moisture which, combined with the lingering front and upper trough, should keep the region wet through tomorrow.

Midwest
A trough in the upper atmosphere will bring widely-scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest today.  Tomorrow, a new cold front will move southward from Canada and scattered showers and thunderstorms will extend from the Great Lakes to portions of the upper-Mississippi Valley.  This front will send more cool air southward turning temperatures below-average throughout the Midwest over the weekend.

South
Isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms will extend from the Carolinas southwestward to the Gulf Coast and westward into central portions of Texas.  An area of low pressure is forecast to develop off the Southeast coast, which could bring some rain to eastern North Carolina.  A few storms may move over the Florida Peninsula during the afternoon today, while thunderstorms from the coastal Southeast to the Gulf Coast and Florida are forecast for tomorrow.

West
High-pressure aloft will persist over the West, with the Pacific Northwest being the exception, as an upper disturbance moves inland.  Afternoon readings for today, up to 15 degrees above-average, will exist over the Great Basin and Intermountain West.  More scattered thunderstorms are forecast over the Southwest, especially with the heating of the day.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity.(FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, July 23, 2009, disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms, extending from the Bahamas northward across the Atlantic for several hundred miles, are associated with a weak surface trough interacting with an upper-level low.  There are no signs of surface circulation and upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for Tropical Cyclone development.  This activity is expected to move northward-or-northeastward at approximately 20 mph over the next day-or-so.  There is a low (less than 30%) chance of this system becoming Tropical or Subtropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific
No activity affecting U.S. territories.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2 (increased activity)
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, July 22, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Moderate (200 new fires)
New large fires:  5
Large fires contained: 4
Uncontained large fires:  17
States affected:  AK, AZ, CA, CO, LA, MT, NV, OR, TX and UT. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment #1 to FEMA-1850-DR-IL (signed July 2, 2009 for Severe Storms, Flooding and Tornadoes that occurred May 8 - 9, 2009), effective July 22, 2009, is amended to include Hamilton and Union Counties for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 23-Jul-2009 07:59:52 EDT