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National Situation Update: Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant Weather

Midwest:
A cold front and upper disturbance will move through the Midwest, producing severe storms from the eastern Dakotas and eastern Nebraska to the Mississippi Valley.  Large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes will be possible.  Highs will range from the 60s in North Dakota and northern Minnesota to the 100s over southern Kansas.  An Excessive Heat Warning continues to be in effect until 7:00 p.m. CDT for portions of southeast Kansas.  Tornado Watches have been issued for portions of South Dakota until 4:00 a.m. EDT.  A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for north-central South Dakota until 7:15 CDT today.
South:
Intense heat will continue due to high pressure over Texas and Oklahoma.  Highs will range from the 80s in some locations east of the Mississippi River to over 100 in portions of Texas and Oklahoma.  An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 7:00 p.m. CDT Tuesday for eastern Oklahoma and portions of northwest Arkansas. 
West:
An upper low will move through Montana to the Midwest producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over Big Sky Country.  Thunderstorms are possible in the Southwest over portions of southeast Arizona, New Mexico and southeast Colorado.  Highs will range from the 50s and 60s for most of the Northern Rockies and in the 100s for the Desert Southwest.  An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 8:00 p.m. PDT today for southeastern California and central Arizona.  A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until midnight AKDT tonight for strong wind and low relative humidity for a portion of the northern interior.
Northeast:
Sunny skies are forecast for much of the region with the exception of northern New England, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Hurricane Carlos
On Tuesday July 14, 2009 at 2:00 a.m. PDT, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located about 1,470 miles SW of the southern tip of Baja California.  Carlos is moving toward the west near 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts.  No significant change in strength is expected during the next 48 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and the estimated minimum central pressure is 994mb.
Area 1
The broad low pressure area located several hundred miles SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico become better organized.  Conditions remain favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two as the low moves west or WNW at 10 to 15 mph.  There is a high chance, greater than 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday evening.

Western Pacific 
No activity affecting U.S. territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
National Fire Activity as of Monday, July 13, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (169 new fires)
New large fires:  3
Large fires contained:  3
Uncontained large fires:  19
States affected:  AK, WA, OR, CA, AZ, NV, UT, CO, & TX (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On July 13, 2009, the president signed a major disaster declaration (FEMA-1851-DR) for the State of Tennessee for severe storms, tornadoes, straight-Line Winds, and flooding occurring June12-14, 2009.  The declaration provides Public Assistance for three counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.  (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Tuesday, 14-Jul-2009 08:34:29 EDT