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National Situation Update: Monday, July 13, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant Weather

West:
A low pressure system will move across the Northwest today producing possible showers and thunderstorms from portions of Washington and Oregon to the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains; severe storms will be possible in the eastern half of Montana and far eastern Wyoming.
Red Flag Warnings will be in effect though late today for portions of northeast Oregon, southeast Washington, and south-central Utah due to a combination of low relative humidity, gusty winds and scattered thunderstorms.  An Excessive Heat Warning continues to be in effect until 8:00 p.m. PDT today for southeastern California and southwestern Arizona; afternoon highs are expected to reach between 110 to 114 degrees across the lower deserts, to include Yuma and the greater Phoenix area.
Midwest:
An approaching front and upper-level system in the Northwest will produce the possibility of severe weather in the northern half of the Plains.  Thunderstorm activity will increase today from North Dakota to far northern Kansas. Some storms may be severe, with the potential to produce damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.  Monday's highs will be in the 70s and 80s over the Northern Plains, upper-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.  The lower Midwest will see highs ranging from the upper 90s and near 100 over southern Kansas to the 80s across the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
South:
The Southern Plains and lower-Mississippi Valley will be dry today, while scattered thunderstorms with locally damaging winds and heavy rainfall are possible for much of the Southeast.  An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 7:00 p.m. CDT Tuesday for eastern Oklahoma, portions of northwest Arkansas, and southeastern and south-central Kansas; the afternoon heat index values are expected to be in the 105 to 110 degree range.
Northeast:
Most of the Northeast will be dry, with the exception of possible showers and thunderstorms across New England. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Utah – Drainage Canal Breach

A drainage canal breach in Logan (Cash County), Utah destroyed one residence and damaged several others.  Utah Search and Rescue Teams have transitioned operations from rescue to recovery mode for three individuals presumed to be in their destroyed residence during the mudslide.  Fifteen residents were evacuated as a precaution and the American Red Cross reports one shelter opened with 18 occupants.  The incident is being handled locally.  The Utah EOC is not activated.  FEMA Region VIII is monitoring the situation.  There have been no requests for Federal assistance.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Carlos
On Monday July 13, 2009 at 2:00 a.m. PDT, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located about 1,285 miles SW of the southern tip of Baja California.  Carlos is moving toward the west near 13 mph and this general motion is expected to continue the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next day or two.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and the estimated minimum central pressure is 1000mb.
Area 1
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next day or two as it moves to the west or west-northwest.  There is a medium chance, 30 to 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday afternoon.

Western Pacific 
No activity affecting U.S. territories.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, July 12, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (135 new fires)
New large fires:  9
Large fires contained:  0
Uncontained large fires:  19
States affected:  AK, WA, OR, CA, AZ, UT, CO, NV, NM & TX  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 13-Jul-2009 07:51:33 EDT