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National Situation Update: Sunday, July 12, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
An upper-level low along coastal Washington and Oregon will produce scattered thunderstorms, some severe, across the Northwest.  Temperature highs will range from the 60s in the Northwest to over 110 in portions of the Southwest.  Red Flag Warnings will be in effect from 11:00 a.m. to 11:00 p.m. PDT today, for south-central Oregon, northern California and western to west-central Nevada due to a combination of low relative humidity, gusty winds and scattered thunderstorms.  An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for southeastern California and southwestern Nevada until 8:00 p.m. PDT Monday.
Midwest:
A stalled cold front will produce thunderstorms today, with possible flash flooding from South Dakota and Nebraska to Kentucky.  Temperatures will range from the 70s in Upper Michigan to the lower 100s in southern Kansas.
South:
Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast Coast.  The Southeast will see temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s while the southern Plains will continue to see highs near 110.  An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 7:00 p.m. CDT Tuesday, for eastern Oklahoma and portions of northwest Arkansas.
Northeast:
A cold front will exit the region today, leaving most of the Northeast dry.  Today's highs will range from the 70s along the Canadian border to the upper 80's in Virginia.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Carlos
On Sunday July 12, 2009 at 2:00 a.m. PDT,  the center of Hurricane Carlos was located about 1,085 miles SW of the southern tip of Baja California.  Hurricane Carlos is moving toward the west near 13 mph and a motion just north of due west is expected during the next couple days.  Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast and Carlos could become a major hurricane during the next day or two.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles.  Estimated minimum central pressure is 980mb.
Area 1
A broad low pressure area that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms is centered about 475 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next couple of days as it moves westward about 10 mph.  There is a medium chance (30% to 50%), of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
No tropical cyclones are expected through Monday afternoon.

Western Pacific: 
No activity affecting U.S. territories.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, July 11, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (108 new fires)
New large fires:  4
Large fires contained:  2
Uncontained large fires:  11
States affected:  AK, OR, CA, NV, UT, AZ & TX  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 13-Jul-2009 07:46:15 EDT