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National Situation Update: Friday, July 10, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant Weather

West:
The region will be generally dry except for isolated thunderstorms from the Oregon Cascades to southern Montana and southward through the Rockies.   Highs will range from the 70s along the Canadian Border to between 100 and 117 in the Desert Southwest.

Midwest:
A cold front will produce showers and severe thunderstorms across the Great Lakes, mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Missouri Valley. Localized flooding is expected.  High temperatures will range from the 70s in North Dakota to near 90 in the Ohio Valley and over 100 in Kansas.

South:
The stationary front will produce scattered thunderstorms from coastal South Carolina to the northern Gulf Coast and southward across Florida. Localized flooding is expected in Florida.   The southern Appalachians will see isolated thunderstorms.  High temperatures will range between 99 and 105 degrees over Texas, Oklahoma, western Arkansas and Louisiana. These temperatures combined with the humidity will cause afternoon heat index values to reach 105 to 110 degrees. Heat Advisories are in effect until this evening.

Northeast:
Under high pressure the region will be rain free with seasonable temperatures.(NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

El Niño Arrives

NOAA scientists have announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.
NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10.
El Niño's impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative.
On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires.
El Niño's negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States.
Scientists with the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center noted weekly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006.
NOAA will continue to monitor the rapidly evolving situation in the tropical Pacific, and will provide more detailed information on possible Atlantic hurricane impacts in its updated Seasonal Hurricane Outlook scheduled for release on August 6, 2009.(Excerpt from: www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
The remnants of Blanca are located 950 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California.

Tropical Depression Four-E is located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. TD Four-E is moving west near 8 mph and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm later today.
Tropical Depression Four-E poses no threat to the United States or its territories.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday evening.

Western Pacific:
No activity affecting U.S. territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  1
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, July 09, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (127 new fires)
New large fires:  9
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires:  15
States affected:  AK, AZ, CA, NM, OR & TX  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Friday, 10-Jul-2009 07:57:07 EDT