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National Situation Update: Friday, June 26, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant Weather

Excessive Heat Warnings
Excessive Heat Warnings continue for the States of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Arkansas.  Excessive Heat Warnings are forecast to continue through the weekend for the States of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Arkansas with temperatures ranging 105 - 110 degrees and dew points in the 80s.  An Excessive Heat warning will also be in effect for the San Francisco Bay Area from Saturday morning through late Sunday, with temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to 103 degrees.  An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur.

Heat Index
130+ Heat/Sun Stroke Highly Likely
105 - 130 Sun stroke, heat cramps likely
90-105 Sun stroke, heat cramps and heat exhaustion possible
80-90 Fatigue possible

Midwest
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely to develop from the Dakotas back to northeast Colorado today and from Wisconsin to Kansas Saturday.  Temperatures will continue to be warm today with highs ranging from the upper 70s around Lake Superior to the lower 90s in the Ohio Valley and over 100 in Kansas.  Cooler air will move into the northern half of the region on Saturday, but areas from Kansas into the mid-Mississippi Valley will see temperatures near 100 degrees and the Ohio Valley will remain in the 90s.

Northeast
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Northeast today from southern New England to the Chesapeake Bay.  A few storms may be severe, producing strong winds and large hail.
High temperatures today will range from the 70s in Maine to the 80s and low 90s in the Mid-Atlantic.
A more significant cold front will enter the area later on Sunday, resulting in showers and thunderstorms from western New York to West Virginia and western Virginia.

South
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today across the Southeast Coast, Florida and the northern Gulf Coast.  Temperatures across the Southeast are expected to remain in the 90s and may approach or exceed 100 degrees from the lower Mississippi River westward.

West
The Far West, especially away from the coast, will experience increasing heat this coming weekend with near record highs of 105 degrees or better in the Central Valley of California and the mid 80s in the Columbia Valley along the Washington-Oregon border.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea have increased between Central America and Cayman Islands.  A slow development is expected to occur as this system moves to the west-northwest at about 10 to 5 mph.  There is less than a 30 percent chance that this system will become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific: 
No activity. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  1
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, June 25, 2009:

• Initial attack activity:  Light (85 new fires)
  
• New large fires:  2
  
• Large fires contained:  1
  
• Uncontained large fires:  4
  
• States affected:  AK, CA, TX and FL

Predictive Services Discussion:
The Southwest will see mostly scattered wet thunderstorms in New Mexico, and initially dry storms possible in Arizona.  Portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and Western Mountains of southern California may also see initially dry thunderstorms.  Elsewhere across the West, warm conditions will prevail with isolated thunderstorms possible in the Great Basin.  Widespread thunderstorms will return to Alaska with cool and wet conditions across the south. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President has declared FEMA-1849-DR for the State of Kansas as a result of a severe storms, flooding, straight-line winds, and tornadoes April 25 to May 16, 2009. Specifically, this declaration provides Public Assistance for 28 counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.
Amendment #2 was approved for FEMA-1841-DR-KY, adding Estill and Fulton Counties for Public Assistance.
Amendment #2 was approved for FEMA-1842-DR-AL, adding Bullock County for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance).  (FEMA HQ)