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National Situation Update: Monday, June 22, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
The combination of a frontal boundary and disturbances may produce isolated to scattered storms in the Southeast. Storms over the Florida Peninsula could be strong with locally heavy rain, hail and damaging winds possible. High temperatures from the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and western Tennessee to Texas and Oklahoma will be in the mid 90s to near 100.
Midwest
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from northeast Minnesota, Wisconsin and upper Michigan southward to Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky. Thunderstorms are possible in the Northern Plains. Temperatures will be above average across much of the region. Temperatures in the mid and upper 90s are expected from Kansas and Nebraska to Missouri and portions of Illinois and Kentucky. Heat index values may be near or over 100 in some locations.
Northeast
A chance for showers is predicted for today in the eastern region from coastal Mid-Atlantic northeastward through the Del-Mar-Va Peninsula up to New England. The surface low will cause gusty north winds from Long Island, N.Y. to New England including Boston, Mass. and Portland, Maine.
West
A chance for showers is expected from western Washington and northwest Oregon to northern Idaho and Montana. Gusty west winds are expected across portions of Montana and Wyoming Marine layer clouds and fog will persist in Southern California. Temperatures in 90s and 100s will be widespread across the Desert Southwest.

Lightning Safety Awareness Week is June 21-27

Outdoor activities and the frequency of thunderstorms make summer the most likely time to be injured or killed by lightning, according to statistics compiled by NOAA's National Weather Service. In order to reduce lightning injuries and fatalities, the National Weather Service is promoting Lightning Safety Awareness Week the last week of June.

More than 70 percent of lightning fatalities occur between June and August.

Annually lightning strikes more than 400 people in the United States. About 60 of those die, and many more are left with devastating and permanent disabilities. The National Weather Service studies show men are struck far more often than women, sustaining about 85 percent of lightning deaths. And men under 40 account for 60 percent of all lightning fatalities.     

To avoid being struck by lightning, the National Weather Service recommends that you:

• Get into a fully enclosed building or hardtop vehicle at the first rumble of thunder;
  
• Stay indoors for 30 minutes after the last thunder clap;
  
• Monitor the weather forecast when you're planning to be outdoors;
  
• Have a plan for getting to safety in case a thunderstorm moves in;
  
• Do not use a corded phone during a thunderstorm unless it's an emergency; cell phones are safe to use;
  
• Keep away from plumbing, electrical equipment and wiring during a thunderstorm.
  
• Remember-"when thunder roars, go indoors."
  (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090617_lightning.html)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific: 
No activity.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Andres 
Tropical Storm Andres has formed approximately 200 miles south of Zihuatanejo, MX and 330 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, MX.  Andres is moving west-northwest at 5 mph and a slow west-northwest to northwest motion are expected to continue during the next 48 hours. The maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts; some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

Area 1
An area of low pressure located about 1,350 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Development of this system, if any
will be slow to occur as it moves slowly east-northeastward over the next couple of days.  There is a less than 30 percent chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Sunday, June 22, 2009, at 10:43 p.m. EDT, an earthquake measuring 4.0 magnitude occurred 70 miles north northeast of Charlotte Amalie, US Virgin Islands at a depth of 15.5 miles. There were no reports of damage or injury and no tsunami was generated.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  1
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, June 21, 2009:

• Initial attack activity:  Light (93 new fires)
  
• New large fires:  3
  
• Large fires contained:  1
  
• Uncontained large fires:  7
  
• States affected:  FL, AK, AZ & NM.

Predictive Services Discussion: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Great Basin into the Rocky Mountains today. Windy conditions will persist across the southern Great Basin into northwest Arizona. Alaska will see showers and cooler conditions moving across the south. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, NGB)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)